Win probability changed during the game. · 9 January 2026
It was more exciting than 83% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Smith · Durant · Thompson · Adams · Sheppard
Closing lineup · POR
Camara · Avdija · Sharpe · Clingan · Cissoko
Jabari Smith Jr.
41′ · -19
Kevin Durant
39′ · +5
Amen Thompson
37′ · -12
Steven Adams
33′ · -14
Tari Eason
16′ · -1
Dorian Finney-Smith
18′ · -3
Clint Capela
11′ · +11
Reed Sheppard
34′ · +1
Josh Okogie
12′ · +2
Toumani Camara
40′ · -5
Deni Avdija
36′ · +3
Shaedon Sharpe
35′ · +11
Donovan Clingan
33′ · +8
Sidy Cissoko
22′ · +28
Rayan Rupert
19′ · -19
Caleb Love
25′ · -7
Hansen Yang
13′ · 0
Robert Williams III
7′ · -2
Duop Reath
11′ · +13
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 11.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Avdija, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Finney-Smith, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Okogie, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Finney-Smith, Okogie, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Okogie, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Finney-Smith, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Capela played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Finney-Smith, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Smith, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Okogie, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Sharpe, Love, Camara, Reath, and Yang played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Avdija, Cissoko, Camara, Reath, and Clingan played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, Reath, and Yang played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Love, Camara, and Clingan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Yang played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Love, Rupert, and Yang played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, and Yang played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sharpe, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Love, Rupert, and Camara played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, and Clingan played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Love, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
