Win probability changed during the game. · 11 January 2026
It was more exciting than 78% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Murphy · Williamson · Fears · Missi · Poole
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Penda · Black · Bane · Bitadze
Trey Murphy III
37′ · -11
Zion Williamson
32′ · -10
Derik Queen
28′ · -19
Jeremiah Fears
28′ · -9
Bryce McGowens
26′ · -22
Yves Missi
18′ · +7
Micah Peavy
19′ · +14
Karlo Matkovic
18′ · +2
Jordan Poole
23′ · -3
Jordan Hawkins
11′ · +1
Paolo Banchero
39′ · +18
Noah Penda
38′ · +21
Anthony Black
36′ · +17
Desmond Bane
35′ · +17
Goga Bitadze
32′ · +23
Tristan da Silva
19′ · -7
Jonathan Isaac
9′ · -13
Jase Richardson
7′ · -11
Tyus Jones
12′ · -7
Moritz Wagner
10′ · -6
Jamal Cain
3′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Williamson, Murphy, McGowens, Fears, and Queen played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Williamson, Poole, Hawkins, Missi, and Peavy played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williamson, Murphy, Fears, Queen, and Peavy played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Orlando Magic
Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 24.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 20 points.
Bitadze, Banchero, Black, da Silva, and Penda played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Jones, Wagner, Bane, Richardson, and Penda played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Poole, Murphy, Matkovic, Queen, and Peavy played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Poole, Murphy, Matkovic, Missi, and Peavy played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, Fears, and Queen played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Williamson, Poole, Murphy, Missi, and Fears played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williamson, Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, and Fears played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, McGowens, Matkovic, Hawkins, and Queen played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williamson, Murphy, McGowens, Missi, and Fears played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, and Queen played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murphy, Matkovic, Missi, Fears, and Peavy played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williamson, Poole, McGowens, Hawkins, and Missi played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Poole, Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, and Missi played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Orlando Magic
Jones, Wagner, Bane, Banchero, and da Silva played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Isaac, Wagner, da Silva, and Richardson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, Wagner, Bane, da Silva, and Penda played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Banchero, Black, da Silva, and Richardson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bitadze, Banchero, Cain, Black, and da Silva played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Banchero, Black, da Silva, and Penda played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Isaac, Bane, Banchero, and Cain played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
