Win probability changed during the game. · 11 January 2026
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 59 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when PHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHI
Edgecombe · Maxey · Oubre · Grimes · Bona
Closing lineup · TOR
Barnes · Murray-Boyles · Quickley · Shead · Martin
VJ Edgecombe
45′ · -12
Tyrese Maxey
45′ · +17
Kelly Oubre Jr.
34′ · -8
Dominick Barlow
26′ · +2
Andre Drummond
20′ · -16
Quentin Grimes
35′ · +4
Adem Bona
33′ · +12
Jabari Walker
17′ · +9
Jared McCain
9′ · -8
Trendon Watford
2′ · -5
Scottie Barnes
43′ · +15
Collin Murray-Boyles
42′ · +5
Immanuel Quickley
40′ · +13
Jamal Shead
37′ · -13
Ja'Kobe Walter
5′ · +3
Alijah Martin
30′ · -8
Gradey Dick
11′ · -4
Sandro Mamukelashvili
18′ · -17
Jamison Battle
15′ · +9
Ochai Agbaji
15′ · -2
A.J. Lawson
10′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHI and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Philadelphia 76ers
Oubre, Maxey, Barlow, Edgecombe, and Drummond played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Grimes, Maxey, Barlow, Bona, and Edgecombe played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Bona, and Edgecombe played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Quickley, Barnes, Shead, Murray-Boyles, and Martin played 10.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Quickley, Agbaji, Barnes, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Philadelphia 76ers
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Walker, and Bona played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Grimes, Walker, McCain, Edgecombe, and Drummond played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Walker, Bona, and McCain played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Maxey, Barlow, Bona, and Edgecombe played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Grimes, Maxey, Walker, Bona, and Edgecombe played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Oubre, Maxey, Watford, Bona, and Edgecombe played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Walker, Bona, and Edgecombe played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Oubre, Grimes, McCain, Edgecombe, and Drummond played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Barlow, Edgecombe, and Drummond played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Toronto Raptors
Quickley, Barnes, Lawson, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Quickley, Agbaji, Barnes, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Dick, Shead, and Martin played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Dick, Murray-Boyles, and Martin played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Shead, and Martin played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mamukelashvili, Lawson, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Shead, Battle, and Martin played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Barnes, Lawson, Shead, Battle, and Martin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Quickley, Agbaji, Barnes, Dick, and Murray-Boyles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Agbaji, Mamukelashvili, Dick, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Agbaji, Mamukelashvili, Shead, Murray-Boyles, and Martin played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Dick, Murray-Boyles, and Martin played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

