Win probability changed during the game. · 13 January 2026
It was more exciting than 7% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Love · Rupert · Cooke · Yang · Reath
Closing lineup · GSW
Post · Richard · Hield · Spencer · Jackson-Davis
Caleb Love
34′ · -14
Toumani Camara
29′ · -18
Shaedon Sharpe
28′ · -17
Sidy Cissoko
26′ · -7
Donovan Clingan
22′ · -7
Rayan Rupert
27′ · -18
Javonte Cooke
13′ · -10
Robert Williams III
16′ · -13
Hansen Yang
13′ · -9
Jrue Holiday
21′ · +1
Duop Reath
11′ · +2
Jimmy Butler III
26′ · +17
Stephen Curry
25′ · +8
Moses Moody
23′ · +12
Draymond Green
22′ · +10
Quinten Post
14′ · -11
Gary Payton II
13′ · +11
Gui Santos
21′ · +24
Al Horford
20′ · +18
De'Anthony Melton
18′ · +20
Brandin Podziemski
22′ · +18
Will Richard
19′ · +1
Buddy Hield
6′ · -6
Pat Spencer
6′ · -6
Trayce Jackson-Davis
6′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Sharpe, Cissoko, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Love, Cissoko, Cooke, Rupert, and Reath played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Golden State Warriors
Moody, Post, Curry, Butler, and Green played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Melton, Santos, Podziemski, Horford, and Butler played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
Melton, Moody, Richard, Horford, and Butler played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Williams, Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, and Rupert played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Love, Camara, Yang, and Holiday played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Love, Cooke, Rupert, Reath, and Yang played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sharpe, Cooke, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Sharpe, Love, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Holiday played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sharpe, Cooke, Rupert, Reath, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sharpe, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Cissoko, Cooke, and Yang played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sharpe, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Holiday played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Love, Cissoko, Yang, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Love, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sharpe, Cissoko, Rupert, Reath, and Clingan played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Love, Rupert, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Love, Cissoko, Rupert, Reath, and Clingan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Yang played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Cooke, Camara, and Yang played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, Rupert, and Yang played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Golden State Warriors
Payton, Moody, Santos, Curry, and Green played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Payton, Santos, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hield, Spencer, Jackson-Davis, Post, and Richard played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hield, Spencer, Santos, Jackson-Davis, and Richard played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Podziemski, Richard, Curry, Butler, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Melton, Santos, Podziemski, Richard, and Horford played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Melton, Moody, Podziemski, Richard, and Horford played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Payton, Moody, Curry, Butler, and Green played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Payton, Santos, Podziemski, Horford, and Curry played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Melton, Podziemski, Post, Horford, and Butler played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Moody, Podziemski, Richard, Horford, and Butler played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
