Win probability changed during the game. · 16 January 2026
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHI leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Mitchell · Tyson · Mobley · Hunter · Ball
Closing lineup · PHI
Maxey · Edgecombe · Embiid · George · Oubre
Donovan Mitchell
39′ · -2
Jaylon Tyson
38′ · +4
Evan Mobley
36′ · -12
Jarrett Allen
33′ · +5
Craig Porter Jr.
22′ · +12
De'Andre Hunter
31′ · +12
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
18′ · -7
Lonzo Ball
12′ · -1
Tyrese Proctor
11′ · -1
Tyrese Maxey
39′ · -4
VJ Edgecombe
35′ · -6
Joel Embiid
33′ · +9
Paul George
30′ · +9
Dominick Barlow
17′ · +4
Quentin Grimes
32′ · -4
Kelly Oubre Jr.
26′ · -7
Jabari Walker
4′ · -5
Adem Bona
15′ · -11
Trendon Watford
10′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and PHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Mobley, Porter, and Tyson played 12.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Hunter, Mobley, and Tyson played 9.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Ball, Mitchell, Hunter, Mobley, and Tomlin played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey, Barlow, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 12.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Bona, Edgecombe, and George played 9.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Allen, Hunter, Tomlin, Porter, and Tyson played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Allen, Hunter, Porter, Tyson, and Proctor played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ball, Mitchell, Mobley, Tomlin, and Proctor played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Hunter, Mobley, Tyson, and Proctor played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Hunter, Porter, and Tyson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Mitchell, Mobley, Tomlin, Tyson, and Proctor played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Ball, Allen, Hunter, Tomlin, and Tyson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Philadelphia 76ers
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Watford, and Embiid played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Walker, and Bona played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Bona, Edgecombe, and George played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Watford, George, and Embiid played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Oubre, Maxey, Edgecombe, George, and Embiid played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Watford, Barlow, and Embiid played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Grimes, Maxey, Barlow, George, and Embiid played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Oubre, Grimes, Maxey, Walker, and Embiid played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Maxey, Watford, Barlow, Edgecombe, and Embiid played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

