Win probability changed during the game. · 18 January 2026
It was more exciting than 47% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Camara · Cissoko · Sharpe · Avdija · Rupert
Closing lineup · SAC
DeRozan · Westbrook · LaVine · Raynaud · Monk
Donovan Clingan
37′ · +17
Toumani Camara
36′ · +16
Sidy Cissoko
34′ · +10
Shaedon Sharpe
34′ · 0
Deni Avdija
32′ · +4
Duop Reath
12′ · -11
Hansen Yang
9′ · -7
Caleb Love
22′ · +14
Rayan Rupert
16′ · -7
Javonte Cooke
7′ · -1
DeMar DeRozan
35′ · -14
Russell Westbrook
34′ · -7
Zach LaVine
29′ · -7
Maxime Raynaud
23′ · -4
Precious Achiuwa
18′ · -14
Dylan Cardwell
26′ · +3
Nique Clifford
13′ · +7
Domantas Sabonis
20′ · +1
Dennis Schroder
18′ · -6
Malik Monk
26′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 17.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Avdija, Love, Camara, Reath, and Yang played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Sharpe, Cissoko, Cooke, Rupert, and Clingan played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Raynaud, Westbrook, DeRozan, and LaVine played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Monk, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and LaVine played 6.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Clifford, Cardwell, and Schroder played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Love, Cissoko, Cooke, Rupert, and Clingan played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Reath, and Yang played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Avdija, Love, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Sharpe, Love, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, Camara, and Clingan played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Love, Cissoko, Rupert, and Reath played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Love, Rupert, Reath, and Yang played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sharpe, Cissoko, Rupert, Camara, and Clingan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sharpe, Love, Camara, Reath, and Clingan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and LaVine played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Monk, Clifford, Raynaud, and Schroder played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Raynaud, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and LaVine played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Achiuwa, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and LaVine played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Monk, Achiuwa, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Monk, Raynaud, Westbrook, DeRozan, and Schroder played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Monk, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and Schroder played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sabonis, Monk, Achiuwa, Clifford, and Schroder played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

