SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 3 February 2026

DEN121–124DET
Is it worth watching?
Skippable

It was more exciting than 47% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DET winsDEN wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when DEN does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DEN

Peyton Watson
Jamal Murray
Nikola Jokic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Jonas Valanciunas

Watson · Murray · Jokic · Hardaway · Valanciunas

Closing lineup · DET

Cade Cunningham
Tobias Harris
Jalen Duren
Ausar Thompson
Isaiah Stewart

Cunningham · Harris · Duren · Thompson · Stewart

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DEN
Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson

38′ · +9

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

37′ · +5

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

33′ · -9

Christian Braun

Christian Braun

26′ · -9

Jalen Pickett

Jalen Pickett

10′ · -4

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

27′ · -9

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown

23′ · -9

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

22′ · +16

Julian Strawther

Julian Strawther

23′ · -1

Zeke Nnaji

Zeke Nnaji

1′ · -4

DET
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

38′ · +11

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

34′ · +3

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

31′ · 0

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

25′ · -1

Ausar Thompson

Ausar Thompson

24′ · +9

Caris LeVert

Caris LeVert

20′ · -8

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

23′ · -2

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

15′ · +4

Daniss Jenkins

Daniss Jenkins

16′ · -1

Javonte Green

Javonte Green

14′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and DET.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Pickett, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Brown, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Murray, Strawther, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • Robinson, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 12.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Holland played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Robinson, Duren, Thompson, Jenkins, and Harris played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Denver Nuggets

  • Brown, Strawther, Braun, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brown, Strawther, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Murray, Brown, Strawther, Watson, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Braun, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Strawther, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Brown, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Murray, Braun, Watson, Valanciunas, and Jokic played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, Strawther, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brown, Strawther, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Watson, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Detroit Pistons

  • LeVert, Stewart, Cunningham, Holland, and Harris played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Jenkins, and Harris played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Harris played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Robinson, Cunningham, Duren, Jenkins, and Harris played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • LeVert, Stewart, Holland, Jenkins, and Harris played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Duren played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Robinson, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Holland played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • LeVert, Robinson, Stewart, Duren, and Jenkins played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Robinson, Green, Cunningham, Duren, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.976
98.2% of capacity
Little Caesars Arena · Detroit
Scoring
245
combined points
13.8 above the season average (231.2)