Win probability changed during the game. · 3 February 2026
It was more exciting than 47% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Watson · Murray · Jokic · Hardaway · Valanciunas
Closing lineup · DET
Cunningham · Harris · Duren · Thompson · Stewart
Peyton Watson
38′ · +9
Jamal Murray
37′ · +5
Nikola Jokic
33′ · -9
Christian Braun
26′ · -9
Jalen Pickett
10′ · -4
Tim Hardaway Jr.
27′ · -9
Bruce Brown
23′ · -9
Jonas Valanciunas
22′ · +16
Julian Strawther
23′ · -1
Zeke Nnaji
1′ · -4
Cade Cunningham
38′ · +11
Tobias Harris
34′ · +3
Jalen Duren
31′ · 0
Duncan Robinson
25′ · -1
Ausar Thompson
24′ · +9
Caris LeVert
20′ · -8
Isaiah Stewart
23′ · -2
Ronald Holland II
15′ · +4
Daniss Jenkins
16′ · -1
Javonte Green
14′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Pickett, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 10.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Brown, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Murray, Strawther, Braun, Watson, and Jokic played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Detroit Pistons
Robinson, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Harris played 12.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Holland played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Robinson, Duren, Thompson, Jenkins, and Harris played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Brown, Strawther, Braun, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Strawther, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Strawther, Watson, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Strawther, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Murray, Braun, Watson, Valanciunas, and Jokic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Strawther, Watson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Strawther, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Watson, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Detroit Pistons
LeVert, Stewart, Cunningham, Holland, and Harris played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Jenkins, and Harris played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Harris played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Robinson, Cunningham, Duren, Jenkins, and Harris played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
LeVert, Stewart, Holland, Jenkins, and Harris played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
LeVert, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Duren played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Robinson, Green, Stewart, Cunningham, and Holland played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
LeVert, Robinson, Stewart, Duren, and Jenkins played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Robinson, Green, Cunningham, Duren, and Thompson played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

