Win probability changed during the game. · 5 February 2026
It was more exciting than 21% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
Williams · Yabusele · Kawamura · Olbrich · McClung
Closing lineup · TOR
Walter · Battle · Martin · Mogbo · Lawson
Jaden Ivey
33′ · -9
Matas Buzelis
33′ · -19
Anfernee Simons
32′ · -10
Isaac Okoro
30′ · -21
Jalen Smith
24′ · -6
Patrick Williams
25′ · -7
Guerschon Yabusele
33′ · -4
Yuki Kawamura
12′ · +3
Lachlan Olbrich
4′ · 0
Mac McClung
13′ · -7
Collin Murray-Boyles
37′ · +20
Brandon Ingram
35′ · +7
Scottie Barnes
32′ · +10
Immanuel Quickley
31′ · +14
Ja'Kobe Walter
31′ · +14
Sandro Mamukelashvili
23′ · +3
Jamal Shead
22′ · +7
Gradey Dick
12′ · -3
Jamison Battle
14′ · +7
Alijah Martin
2′ · +1
Jonathan Mogbo
0′ · 0
A.J. Lawson
0′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Yabusele, Simons, Okoro, Smith, and McClung played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Simons, Okoro, Smith, Ivey, and Buzelis played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Yabusele, Simons, Williams, Ivey, and Buzelis played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 14.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Walter, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Ingram, Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Yabusele, Okoro, McClung, Ivey, and Buzelis played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Yabusele, Williams, Ivey, Buzelis, and Kawamura played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Yabusele, Simons, Williams, Smith, and Ivey played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Okoro, Williams, Ivey, and Kawamura played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Yabusele, Okoro, Williams, Ivey, and Buzelis played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Simons, Okoro, Smith, Buzelis, and Kawamura played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Simons, Smith, Ivey, and Buzelis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Simons, Okoro, Williams, Smith, and Buzelis played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Yabusele, Williams, McClung, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Yabusele, Simons, Okoro, Williams, and Ivey played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Simons, Okoro, Smith, McClung, and Buzelis played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Simons, Williams, Ivey, Buzelis, and Olbrich played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Ivey, Buzelis, Kawamura, and Olbrich played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Dick, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Dick, and Shead played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Dick, Shead, and Battle played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Barnes, Walter, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Shead played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Barnes, Dick, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Battle played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Walter played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Quickley, Walter, Battle, Murray-Boyles, and Martin played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

