Win probability changed during the game. · 9 February 2026
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on DEN's side, but CLE won 119-117. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Harden · Allen · Mitchell · Tyson · Merrill
Closing lineup · DEN
Murray · Jokic · Braun · Johnson · Hardaway
James Harden
36′ · +9
Jarrett Allen
35′ · +8
Donovan Mitchell
34′ · +3
Jaylon Tyson
31′ · +11
Sam Merrill
25′ · +13
Keon Ellis
20′ · +2
Dennis Schroder
25′ · -14
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
13′ · -10
Thomas Bryant
13′ · -6
Craig Porter Jr.
9′ · -6
Jamal Murray
36′ · -4
Nikola Jokic
33′ · -2
Christian Braun
32′ · +3
Cameron Johnson
29′ · -7
Julian Strawther
29′ · +3
Tim Hardaway Jr.
29′ · +6
Bruce Brown
25′ · -10
Jonas Valanciunas
15′ · 0
Jalen Pickett
12′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Merrill, Tyson, and Harden played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Allen, Merrill, Tyson, Harden, and Schroder played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mitchell, Bryant, Ellis, Tomlin, and Schroder played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Strawther, Braun, and Jokic played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Brown, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Pickett, Johnson, Strawther, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Tyson, Harden, and Schroder played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mitchell, Bryant, Tomlin, Porter, and Schroder played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Ellis, Tyson, Harden, and Schroder played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Allen, Merrill, Ellis, Tyson, and Harden played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Mitchell, Bryant, Ellis, Tomlin, and Porter played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Mitchell, Allen, Ellis, Tyson, and Harden played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Mitchell, Allen, Merrill, Ellis, and Harden played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Merrill, Porter, Harden, and Schroder played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Braun, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Strawther, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, Johnson, Strawther, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Braun, and Valanciunas played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Johnson, and Valanciunas played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Pickett, Strawther, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Brown, Strawther, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Pickett, Strawther, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
