Win probability changed during the game. · 23 February 2026
It was more exciting than 72% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Murray · Achiuwa · Westbrook · DeRozan · Plowden
Closing lineup · MEM
Wells · Jackson · Spencer · Small · Clayton
Keegan Murray
34′ · +11
Precious Achiuwa
33′ · +7
Russell Westbrook
33′ · +9
DeMar DeRozan
29′ · +1
Maxime Raynaud
28′ · +10
Nique Clifford
28′ · +2
Daeqwon Plowden
26′ · -4
Malik Monk
19′ · +3
Killian Hayes
11′ · +6
Jaylen Wells
26′ · -7
GG Jackson
26′ · -12
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
25′ · -12
Cam Spencer
22′ · -12
Scotty Pippen Jr.
22′ · -9
Rayan Rupert
26′ · -5
Taylor Hendricks
25′ · +3
Javon Small
25′ · -1
Jahmai Mashack
22′ · +5
Walter Clayton Jr.
21′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Murray, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 12.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Monk, Hayes, Achiuwa, Plowden, and Clifford played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Monk, Hayes, Plowden, Clifford, and Raynaud played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Memphis Grizzlies
Pippen, Jackson, Prosper, Spencer, and Wells played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Pippen, Rupert, Jackson, Prosper, and Spencer played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hendricks, Wells, Clayton, Small, and Mashack played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Murray, Clifford, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Achiuwa, Murray, Plowden, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Monk, Murray, Clifford, Raynaud, and Westbrook played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Plowden, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Monk, Achiuwa, Murray, Plowden, and Clifford played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Achiuwa, Murray, Clifford, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Monk, Achiuwa, Plowden, Clifford, and DeRozan played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Achiuwa, Murray, Plowden, Clifford, and Westbrook played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Monk, Achiuwa, Plowden, Clifford, and Westbrook played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Memphis Grizzlies
Hendricks, Rupert, Clayton, Small, and Mashack played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hendricks, Rupert, Wells, Small, and Mashack played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Rupert, Jackson, Prosper, Clayton, and Small played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hendricks, Prosper, Wells, Clayton, and Small played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hendricks, Rupert, Jackson, Spencer, and Mashack played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hendricks, Rupert, Prosper, Clayton, and Small played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Pippen, Hendricks, Rupert, Jackson, and Mashack played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

