Win probability changed during the game. · 26 February 2026
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
Doncic · Reaves · James · Smart · Kleber
Closing lineup · PHX
Gillespie · O'Neale · Dunn · Allen · Ighodaro
Luka Doncic
39′ · +9
Austin Reaves
36′ · +9
LeBron James
35′ · +5
Marcus Smart
31′ · -3
Deandre Ayton
23′ · -24
Luke Kennard
21′ · -9
Jake LaRavia
28′ · -3
Jaxson Hayes
21′ · +16
Jarred Vanderbilt
6′ · -15
Maxi Kleber
0′ · 0
Collin Gillespie
31′ · 0
Royce O'Neale
28′ · -4
Ryan Dunn
26′ · -20
Jalen Green
24′ · -2
Mark Williams
13′ · 0
Grayson Allen
31′ · -14
Oso Ighodaro
34′ · 0
Jamaree Bouyea
14′ · +16
Rasheer Fleming
21′ · +19
Amir Coffey
17′ · +20
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, Smart, and James played 11.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, and LaRavia played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Doncic, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Coffey, Bouyea, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
O'Neale, Green, Williams, Gillespie, and Dunn played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Allen, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Kennard, Hayes, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Doncic, Hayes, LaRavia, and Smart played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, Smart, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vanderbilt, Ayton, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and LaRavia played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Vanderbilt, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and Smart played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vanderbilt, Hayes, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Ayton, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Vanderbilt, Ayton, Doncic, and Reaves played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Coffey, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
O'Neale, Green, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Allen, Green, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
O'Neale, Green, Williams, Bouyea, and Fleming played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
O'Neale, Allen, Green, Williams, and Dunn played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
O'Neale, Coffey, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Fleming played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Allen, Green, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Allen, Green, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

