Win probability changed during the game. · 3 March 2026
It was more exciting than 59% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Jackson · Rupert · Clayton · Spencer · Coward
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Randle · McDaniels · Dosunmu · Anderson
Jaylen Wells
28′ · -10
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
24′ · -16
Ty Jerome
24′ · -16
Scotty Pippen Jr.
24′ · -16
GG Jackson
23′ · -3
Rayan Rupert
25′ · -5
Walter Clayton Jr.
24′ · +9
Taylor Hendricks
24′ · +10
Cam Spencer
24′ · +8
Cedric Coward
21′ · +4
Anthony Edwards
37′ · +13
Julius Randle
36′ · +1
Jaden McDaniels
32′ · +5
Donte DiVincenzo
30′ · +21
Rudy Gobert
26′ · +4
Ayo Dosunmu
29′ · -4
Naz Reid
23′ · +2
Bones Hyland
12′ · -2
Kyle Anderson
14′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jerome, Pippen, Jackson, Prosper, and Wells played 20.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hendricks, Rupert, Spencer, Clayton, and Coward played 17.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jerome, Pippen, Rupert, Prosper, and Wells played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Randle played 17.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Reid, Dosunmu, Hyland, Anderson, and Randle played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Dosunmu played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Hendricks, Rupert, Spencer, Wells, and Clayton played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hendricks, Jackson, Spencer, Clayton, and Coward played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, Dosunmu, and Randle played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Edwards, McDaniels, Dosunmu, Gobert, and Randle played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Dosunmu, and Randle played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Reid, Dosunmu, Hyland, Gobert, and Anderson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Reid, Edwards, Dosunmu, Hyland, and Gobert played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Dosunmu, and Randle played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, Dosunmu, Anderson, and Randle played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

