Win probability changed during the game. · 14 March 2026
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Johnson · Gordon · Braun · Hardaway
Closing lineup · LAL
Reaves · Doncic · James · Smart · Ayton
Nikola Jokic
43′ · +6
Cameron Johnson
43′ · +15
Jamal Murray
36′ · -9
Aaron Gordon
35′ · -3
Christian Braun
33′ · -6
Tim Hardaway Jr.
29′ · +2
Spencer Jones
23′ · -2
Bruce Brown
20′ · -5
Jonas Valanciunas
3′ · -8
Austin Reaves
46′ · +7
Luka Doncic
43′ · -4
LeBron James
40′ · +6
Marcus Smart
35′ · +17
Deandre Ayton
27′ · +1
Rui Hachimura
25′ · -8
Luke Kennard
16′ · -9
Jaxson Hayes
21′ · -2
Jake LaRavia
12′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Braun, Gordon, and Jokic played 18.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Johnson, Braun, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 8.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Johnson, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, Smart, and James played 16.3 minutes together.
Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 5.6 minutes together.
Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Reaves played 5.5 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Los Angeles Lakers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Jones, and Jokic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Brown, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Murray, Brown, Jones, Hardaway, and Gordon played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Johnson, Braun, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Jones, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Braun, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Jones, and Gordon played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Braun, Hardaway, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Doncic, Hachimura, Reaves, Smart, and James played 5.1 minutes together.
Kennard, Doncic, Hayes, Smart, and James played 3.8 minutes together.
Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Smart played 3.6 minutes together.
Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 3.3 minutes together.
Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Hachimura, and Reaves played 3.1 minutes together.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 1.6 minutes together.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, Smart, and James played 1.5 minutes together.
Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, and James played 1.0 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
