SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 21 March 2026

LAL105–104ORL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ORL winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

Austin Reaves
Luka Doncic
LeBron James
Marcus Smart
Luke Kennard

Reaves · Doncic · James · Smart · Kennard

Closing lineup · ORL

Desmond Bane
Paolo Banchero
Jalen Suggs
Wendell Carter Jr.
Tristan da Silva

Bane · Banchero · Suggs · Carter · da Silva

Q1Q2Q3Q4
LAL
Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

40′ · +8

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

38′ · +10

LeBron James

LeBron James

34′ · +4

Marcus Smart

Marcus Smart

31′ · +1

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

29′ · +2

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

15′ · -3

Luke Kennard

Luke Kennard

20′ · -6

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

19′ · -2

Jake LaRavia

Jake LaRavia

14′ · -9

ORL
Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

38′ · -10

Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero

36′ · -18

Jalen Suggs

Jalen Suggs

34′ · -20

Wendell Carter Jr.

Wendell Carter Jr.

29′ · -11

Tristan da Silva

Tristan da Silva

21′ · -9

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

18′ · +9

Jamal Cain

Jamal Cain

23′ · +11

Jett Howard

Jett Howard

7′ · +7

Jevon Carter

Jevon Carter

21′ · +18

Noah Penda

Noah Penda

13′ · +18

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and ORL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, Smart, and James played 14.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Smart played 6.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Orlando Magic

  • Carter, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 18.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Cain, and Penda played 9.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • Carter, Suggs, Banchero, Cain, and Howard played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Ayton, Doncic, Hachimura, Reaves, and James played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Reaves played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

  • Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and LaRavia played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and James played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, Smart, and James played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Doncic, Hayes, Smart, and James played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Orlando Magic

  • Carter, Carter, Suggs, Banchero, and Cain played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Carter, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and Cain played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Bitadze, Suggs, Banchero, Cain, and Howard played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, and da Silva played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Carter, Bitadze, Cain, Howard, and Penda played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Carter, Carter, Bane, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Carter, Carter, Bane, Cain, and Penda played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bitadze, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.597
104% of capacity
Kia Center · Orlando
Scoring
209
combined points
22.2 below the season average (231.2)