Win probability changed during the game. · 21 March 2026
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
Reaves · Doncic · James · Smart · Kennard
Closing lineup · ORL
Bane · Banchero · Suggs · Carter · da Silva
Austin Reaves
40′ · +8
Luka Doncic
38′ · +10
LeBron James
34′ · +4
Marcus Smart
31′ · +1
Deandre Ayton
29′ · +2
Rui Hachimura
15′ · -3
Luke Kennard
20′ · -6
Jaxson Hayes
19′ · -2
Jake LaRavia
14′ · -9
Desmond Bane
38′ · -10
Paolo Banchero
36′ · -18
Jalen Suggs
34′ · -20
Wendell Carter Jr.
29′ · -11
Tristan da Silva
21′ · -9
Goga Bitadze
18′ · +9
Jamal Cain
23′ · +11
Jett Howard
7′ · +7
Jevon Carter
21′ · +18
Noah Penda
13′ · +18
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, Smart, and James played 14.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Smart played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 18.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Cain, and Penda played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Carter, Suggs, Banchero, Cain, and Howard played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Doncic, Hachimura, Reaves, and James played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Doncic, Hachimura, Hayes, and Reaves played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, Smart, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and LaRavia played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Ayton, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Ayton, Doncic, Reaves, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Doncic, Hayes, Reaves, Smart, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Doncic, Hayes, Smart, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Carter, Suggs, Banchero, and Cain played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and Cain played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Bitadze, Suggs, Banchero, Cain, and Howard played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, and da Silva played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Bitadze, Cain, Howard, and Penda played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Carter, Carter, Bane, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Carter, Bane, Cain, and Penda played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bitadze, Bane, Suggs, Banchero, and da Silva played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

