Win probability changed during the game. · 25 March 2026
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Smith · Thompson · Sengun · Durant · Sheppard
Closing lineup · MIN
Randle · DiVincenzo · Hyland · Anderson · Shannon
Jabari Smith Jr.
48′ · -3
Amen Thompson
45′ · -3
Alperen Sengun
43′ · -2
Kevin Durant
43′ · +5
Reed Sheppard
28′ · +5
Tari Eason
21′ · +3
Clint Capela
10′ · 0
Jae'Sean Tate
8′ · -5
Aaron Holiday
12′ · -2
Dorian Finney-Smith
6′ · -5
Josh Okogie
1′ · -3
Julius Randle
42′ · +7
Jaden McDaniels
37′ · -6
Donte DiVincenzo
36′ · +3
Mike Conley
29′ · +2
Rudy Gobert
28′ · 0
Naz Reid
31′ · -8
Bones Hyland
30′ · -1
Kyle Anderson
30′ · +4
Terrence Shannon Jr.
2′ · +9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 14.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Durant played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Finney-Smith, Holiday, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Hyland, Anderson, and Randle played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Gobert, and Anderson played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Tate, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Smith, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Tate, Sengun, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Sengun, Smith, Eason, Sheppard, and Durant played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, and Randle played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Conley, and Gobert played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, Anderson, and Randle played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Hyland, Shannon, Anderson, and Randle played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Anderson, and Randle played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, Hyland, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Hyland, Gobert, and Randle played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Reid, McDaniels, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

