SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 25 March 2026

HOU108–110MIN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIN winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Jabari Smith Jr.
Amen Thompson
Alperen Sengun
Kevin Durant
Reed Sheppard

Smith · Thompson · Sengun · Durant · Sheppard

Closing lineup · MIN

Julius Randle
Donte DiVincenzo
Bones Hyland
Kyle Anderson
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Randle · DiVincenzo · Hyland · Anderson · Shannon

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
HOU
Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

48′ · -3

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

45′ · -3

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

43′ · -2

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

43′ · +5

Reed Sheppard

Reed Sheppard

28′ · +5

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

21′ · +3

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

10′ · 0

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

8′ · -5

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

12′ · -2

Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

6′ · -5

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

1′ · -3

MIN
Julius Randle

Julius Randle

42′ · +7

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels

37′ · -6

Donte DiVincenzo

Donte DiVincenzo

36′ · +3

Mike Conley

Mike Conley

29′ · +2

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

28′ · 0

Naz Reid

Naz Reid

31′ · -8

Bones Hyland

Bones Hyland

30′ · -1

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

30′ · +4

Terrence Shannon Jr.

Terrence Shannon Jr.

2′ · +9

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MIN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 14.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Durant played 6.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Finney-Smith, Holiday, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 11.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Reid, Hyland, Anderson, and Randle played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Gobert, and Anderson played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • Tate, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Smith, Eason, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Tate, Sengun, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Sengun, Smith, Eason, Sheppard, and Durant played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • DiVincenzo, Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, and Randle played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Reid, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Conley, and Gobert played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, Anderson, and Randle played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Hyland, Shannon, Anderson, and Randle played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Reid, McDaniels, Hyland, Anderson, and Randle played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • DiVincenzo, Hyland, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Hyland, Gobert, and Randle played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Reid, McDaniels, Conley, Anderson, and Randle played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Anderson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.978
105.3% of capacity
Target Center · Minneapolis
Scoring
218
combined points
13.2 below the season average (231.2)