Win probability changed during the game. · 30 March 2026
It was more exciting than 6% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when CHI does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHI
Sexton · Miller · Williams · Dillingham · Olbrich
Closing lineup · SAS
Castle · Vassell · Champagnie · Johnson · Kornet
Josh Giddey
33′ · -18
Guerschon Yabusele
30′ · -8
Matas Buzelis
28′ · -28
Tre Jones
26′ · -7
Isaac Okoro
25′ · -10
Collin Sexton
27′ · 0
Leonard Miller
25′ · -9
Patrick Williams
21′ · +3
Rob Dillingham
20′ · +2
Lachlan Olbrich
4′ · 0
Stephon Castle
35′ · +24
Devin Vassell
31′ · +20
Victor Wembanyama
30′ · +15
Julian Champagnie
28′ · +9
De'Aaron Fox
23′ · +9
Keldon Johnson
26′ · +11
Dylan Harper
24′ · +4
Luke Kornet
19′ · -8
Harrison Barnes
17′ · -5
Carter Bryant
6′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHI and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Chicago Bulls
Yabusele, Okoro, Jones, Giddey, and Buzelis played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Yabusele, Sexton, Giddey, Miller, and Dillingham played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Sexton, Williams, Jones, and Dillingham played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Castle played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, Castle, and Harper played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Chicago Bulls
Sexton, Williams, Miller, Dillingham, and Olbrich played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Okoro, Williams, Jones, and Miller played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Yabusele, Sexton, Okoro, Giddey, and Buzelis played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Okoro, Jones, Giddey, Miller, and Buzelis played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Yabusele, Williams, Giddey, Buzelis, and Dillingham played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sexton, Williams, Giddey, Miller, and Dillingham played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sexton, Okoro, Giddey, Miller, and Buzelis played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Yabusele, Sexton, Giddey, Miller, and Buzelis played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Okoro, Williams, Jones, Miller, and Buzelis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Yabusele, Okoro, Williams, Jones, and Buzelis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Kornet, Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, and Castle played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Kornet, Johnson, Harper, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Fox, Johnson, Wembanyama, Harper, and Barnes played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Fox, Johnson, Wembanyama, Castle, and Barnes played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Champagnie, Wembanyama, Castle, Bryant, and Barnes played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Harper played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Bryant played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, Harper, and Bryant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kornet, Johnson, Wembanyama, Harper, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
