Win probability changed during the game. · 12 March 2026
It was more exciting than 42% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when DAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DAL
Williams · Martin · Nembhard · Powell · Johnson
Closing lineup · MEM
Rupert · Jackson · Small · Mashack · Hendricks
Cooper Flagg
33′ · +11
P.J. Washington
28′ · +2
Daniel Gafford
27′ · +6
Max Christie
25′ · +8
Naji Marshall
23′ · -1
Brandon Williams
28′ · -5
Marvin Bagley III
19′ · +6
Khris Middleton
25′ · +21
Caleb Martin
15′ · -1
Ryan Nembhard
13′ · +5
Dwight Powell
2′ · -6
AJ Johnson
2′ · -6
Rayan Rupert
38′ · -19
Jaylen Wells
32′ · -19
GG Jackson
31′ · +3
Javon Small
28′ · +2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
27′ · -16
Jahmai Mashack
31′ · +5
Tyler Burton
29′ · -1
Taylor Hendricks
24′ · +5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Dallas Mavericks
Washington, Gafford, Marshall, Christie, and Flagg played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gafford, Christie, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Bagley, Washington, Williams, Christie, and Flagg played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Memphis Grizzlies
Rupert, Jackson, Prosper, Wells, and Small played 16.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Burton, Hendricks, Jackson, Small, and Mashack played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Wells, and Mashack played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Dallas Mavericks
Bagley, Martin, Marshall, Williams, and Middleton played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Williams, and Middleton played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bagley, Washington, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Washington, Gafford, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Martin, Washington, Gafford, Williams, and Middleton played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Washington, Gafford, Marshall, Williams, and Flagg played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bagley, Martin, Marshall, Williams, and Christie played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Martin, Williams, Johnson, Nembhard, and Powell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bagley, Washington, Christie, Flagg, and Nembhard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bagley, Washington, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Washington, Gafford, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bagley, Marshall, Williams, Christie, and Flagg played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bagley, Marshall, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Bagley, Washington, Williams, Christie, and Middleton played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Burton, Rupert, Prosper, Wells, and Mashack played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Jackson, and Mashack played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Prosper, and Mashack played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

