SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 12 March 2026

DAL120–112MEM
Is it worth watching?
Skippable

It was more exciting than 42% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MEM winsDAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when DAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · DAL

Brandon Williams
Caleb Martin
Ryan Nembhard
Dwight Powell
AJ Johnson

Williams · Martin · Nembhard · Powell · Johnson

Closing lineup · MEM

Rayan Rupert
GG Jackson
Javon Small
Jahmai Mashack
Taylor Hendricks

Rupert · Jackson · Small · Mashack · Hendricks

Q1Q2Q3Q4
DAL
Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg

33′ · +11

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington

28′ · +2

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

27′ · +6

Max Christie

Max Christie

25′ · +8

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

23′ · -1

Brandon Williams

Brandon Williams

28′ · -5

Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley III

19′ · +6

Khris Middleton

Khris Middleton

25′ · +21

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin

15′ · -1

Ryan Nembhard

Ryan Nembhard

13′ · +5

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

2′ · -6

AJ Johnson

AJ Johnson

2′ · -6

MEM
Rayan Rupert

Rayan Rupert

38′ · -19

Jaylen Wells

Jaylen Wells

32′ · -19

GG Jackson

GG Jackson

31′ · +3

Javon Small

Javon Small

28′ · +2

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

27′ · -16

Jahmai Mashack

Jahmai Mashack

31′ · +5

Tyler Burton

Tyler Burton

29′ · -1

Taylor Hendricks

Taylor Hendricks

24′ · +5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and MEM.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Washington, Gafford, Marshall, Christie, and Flagg played 8.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gafford, Christie, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Bagley, Washington, Williams, Christie, and Flagg played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Rupert, Jackson, Prosper, Wells, and Small played 16.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Burton, Hendricks, Jackson, Small, and Mashack played 9.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Wells, and Mashack played 8.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Dallas Mavericks

  • Bagley, Martin, Marshall, Williams, and Middleton played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Martin, Gafford, Marshall, Williams, and Middleton played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bagley, Washington, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Washington, Gafford, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Martin, Washington, Gafford, Williams, and Middleton played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Washington, Gafford, Marshall, Williams, and Flagg played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bagley, Martin, Marshall, Williams, and Christie played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Martin, Williams, Johnson, Nembhard, and Powell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Bagley, Washington, Christie, Flagg, and Nembhard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Bagley, Washington, Flagg, Nembhard, and Middleton played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Washington, Gafford, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bagley, Marshall, Williams, Christie, and Flagg played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bagley, Marshall, Williams, Flagg, and Middleton played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bagley, Washington, Williams, Christie, and Middleton played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Burton, Rupert, Prosper, Wells, and Mashack played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Jackson, and Mashack played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Burton, Hendricks, Rupert, Prosper, and Mashack played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.029
84.5% of capacity
FedExForum · Memphis
Scoring
232
combined points
0.8 above the season average (231.2)