Win probability changed during the game. · 11 December 2025
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Cissoko · Love · Reath · Rupert · Cooke
Closing lineup · NOP
Queen · Fears · Peavy · Hawkins · Matkovic
Deni Avdija
32′ · -12
Jerami Grant
31′ · -32
Kris Murray
29′ · -11
Toumani Camara
28′ · -11
Shaedon Sharpe
27′ · -17
Sidy Cissoko
32′ · -7
Caleb Love
22′ · -9
Duop Reath
13′ · -6
Rayan Rupert
24′ · -10
Javonte Cooke
4′ · 0
Derik Queen
35′ · +12
Trey Murphy III
31′ · +8
Saddiq Bey
29′ · 0
Jeremiah Fears
25′ · +11
Herbert Jones
14′ · +5
Jordan Poole
26′ · +18
Jose Alvarado
23′ · +12
Bryce McGowens
30′ · +19
Yves Missi
13′ · +11
Micah Peavy
11′ · +15
Jordan Hawkins
1′ · +2
Karlo Matkovic
1′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Camara, and Grant played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Cissoko, and Camara played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Love, Cissoko, Cooke, Rupert, and Reath played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
New Orleans Pelicans
Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears, and Queen played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Bey, Jones, Murphy, Fears, and Queen played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Poole, Bey, Alvarado, McGowens, and Missi played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Love, Cissoko, Rupert, Reath, and Grant played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, Camara, and Grant played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Avdija, Love, Murray, Rupert, and Camara played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Love, Rupert, Reath, and Grant played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Love, Murray, Cissoko, Rupert, and Grant played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sharpe, Love, Cissoko, Camara, and Grant played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Avdija, Love, Murray, Cissoko, and Camara played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sharpe, Cissoko, Rupert, Reath, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Rupert, and Grant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Cissoko, and Grant played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, Rupert, and Camara played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, Rupert, and Grant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Avdija, Cissoko, Rupert, Camara, and Grant played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sharpe, Murray, Cissoko, Rupert, and Camara played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
New Orleans Pelicans
Poole, Alvarado, McGowens, Queen, and Peavy played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Poole, Alvarado, McGowens, Missi, and Peavy played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Poole, Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, and Queen played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Poole, Jones, Alvarado, McGowens, and Missi played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Murphy, Alvarado, Missi, and Peavy played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Murphy, McGowens, Fears, and Queen played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Matkovic, Hawkins, Fears, Queen, and Peavy played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Jones, Alvarado, McGowens, and Queen played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Poole, Jones, Murphy, Alvarado, and Queen played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Bey, Murphy, Fears, and Queen played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

