Win probability changed during the game. · 11 December 2025
It was more exciting than 3% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Brown · Pickett · Valanciunas · Tyson · Nnaji
Closing lineup · SAC
Raynaud · Clifford · Ellis · Monk · Carter
Cameron Johnson
33′ · +17
Nikola Jokic
29′ · +26
Jamal Murray
26′ · +24
Peyton Watson
23′ · +17
Spencer Jones
22′ · +25
Tim Hardaway Jr.
25′ · +25
Bruce Brown
26′ · +6
Jalen Pickett
25′ · +11
Jonas Valanciunas
19′ · +5
Hunter Tyson
7′ · +2
Zeke Nnaji
6′ · -3
Maxime Raynaud
37′ · -26
Nique Clifford
28′ · -29
Keegan Murray
28′ · -12
Russell Westbrook
27′ · -19
DeMar DeRozan
21′ · -27
Keon Ellis
31′ · -14
Drew Eubanks
4′ · -12
Malik Monk
30′ · -19
Precious Achiuwa
10′ · +2
Doug McDermott
3′ · -1
Devin Carter
21′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Watson, Jones, and Jokic played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Pickett, Johnson, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, Tyson, and Valanciunas played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sacramento Kings
Monk, Ellis, Carter, Clifford, and Raynaud played 14.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Clifford, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Monk, Murray, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Brown, Pickett, Johnson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Brown, Watson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Johnson, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Murray, Watson, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Murray, Pickett, Watson, Jones, and Valanciunas played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Murray, Ellis, Carter, and Westbrook played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Eubanks, Murray, Ellis, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Ellis, Raynaud, Westbrook, and McDermott played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Monk, Achiuwa, Ellis, Clifford, and Raynaud played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Monk, Clifford, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Monk, Achiuwa, Ellis, Carter, and Clifford played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Monk, Eubanks, Murray, Ellis, and DeRozan played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
