What if…?
Without Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic performed practically the same
36 games with him · 5 without, in 2025-26
-1.0
points per game
The question
What would have changed if Moritz Wagner had not played?
This answer is not published
- The evidence does not support what would be claimed.
The evidence
Without Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic performed practically the same
The claim goes unshown because something specific is missing:
- · The sample is too small to hold it up.5 partidos — el umbral de esta unidad es 10
The fact
What actually happened, game by game, in 2025-26. None of this is an estimate.
With Moritz Wagner in the box score
-0.03 points per game
36 games · 21-15 · 115.2 – 115.2
Without him
-1.00 points per game
5 games · 2-3 · 117.8 – 118.8
The assumptions
What we decided in order to answer. If an assumption does not hold for you, neither does the answer.
- That the 5 games without him represent a whole season without him.
- That opponent quality is spread evenly across both groups. We have not controlled for it.
- That other absences do not systematically coincide with his.
The estimated result
Arithmetic on the two figures above, nothing else: the per-game difference carried over a 82-game season.
- points of margin per game-0.97
- Across 82 games that is -80 points of accumulated margin.
FactDerivedAssumption
What this does not prove
- This does not say he is the cause. A team without its best player also changes rotation, opponent and schedule at the same time.
- It rests on 5 games without him. At that sample size, a couple of odd games move the number.
- It is not a forecast for next season: it is what happened in the one already played.
From here
Where it comes from
Source
2026-04-08
Model input
not stated
Computation
not stated
This answer
2026-10-12
Where this comes from