Forecast NBA 2026-27Orlando Magic
● Updated · 7 Nov
Orlando drops from 45 to 33 wins.
Desmond Bane
Paolo Banchero is the player who weighs most in this projection: +2.2 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | 27.7 | 75.5 | 2,075 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 24.7 | 74.4 | 1,824 |
| Franz Wagner | 26.8 | 68.1 | 1,808 |
| Paolo Banchero | 29.3 | 59.3 | 1,726 |
| Tristan da Silva | 20.9 | 74.7 | 1,547 |
| Anthony Black | 25.7 | 58.9 | 1,501 |
| Jalen Suggs | 23.9 | 58.9 | 1,397 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 19.8 | 69.7 | 1,369 |
| Goga Bitadze | 15.7 | 58.5 | 911 |
| Jase Richardson | 13.6 | 66.7 | 901 |
| Jamal Cain | 11.9 | 60.8 | 721 |
| Noah Penda | 13.7 | 45.7 | 622 |
| Jevon Carter | 13.6 | 43.8 | 593 |
| Jonathan Isaac | 10.0 | 42.4 | 420 |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 9.2 | 37.8 | 347 |
| Alex Morales | 5.7 | 35.9 | 205 |
| Colin Castleton | 6.0 | 27.5 | 165 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,132
- Not assigned to players
- 1,548
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | 100.0 % | 75.5 | History and team context |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 100.0 % | 74.4 | History and team context |
| Franz Wagner | 100.0 % | 68.1 | History and team context |
| Paolo Banchero | 100.0 % | 59.3 | History and team context |
| Tristan da Silva | 100.0 % | 74.7 | History and team context |
| Anthony Black | 100.0 % | 58.9 | History and team context |
| Jalen Suggs | 100.0 % | 58.9 | History and team context |
| Nikola Vucevic | 100.0 % | 69.7 | History and team context |
| Goga Bitadze | 100.0 % | 58.5 | History and team context |
| Jase Richardson | 100.0 % | 66.7 | History and team context |
| Jamal Cain | 100.0 % | 60.8 | History and team context |
| Noah Penda | 66.5 % | 68.7 | History and team context |
| Jevon Carter | 100.0 % | 43.8 | History and team context |
| Jonathan Isaac | 66.5 % | 63.8 | History and team context |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 51.1 % | 74.0 | Historical average by draft band |
| Alex Morales | 100.0 % | 35.9 | History and team context |
| Colin Castleton | 100.0 % | 27.5 | History and team context |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 43.0 to 32.6 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug43.0 wins
- 21 Aug+0.43 · trigger not stated43.5 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change43.5 wins
- 24 Aug-4.75 · roster change38.7 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change38.7 wins
- 26 Aug+0.01 · roster change38.7 wins
- 27 Aug-0.12 · roster change38.6 wins
- 28 Aug+2.46 · roster change41.1 wins
- 29 Aug0.00 · roster change41.1 wins
- 30 Aug-0.02 · roster change41.0 wins
- 31 Aug-2.37 · roster change38.7 wins
- 1 Sept+4.81 · roster change43.5 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change43.5 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change43.5 wins
- 4 Sept-0.40 · roster change43.1 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 8 Sept0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 10 Sept0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change43.1 wins
- 14 Sept-0.21 · roster change42.9 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change42.9 wins
- 16 Sept+0.04 · roster change42.9 wins
- 17 Sept0.00 · roster change42.9 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change42.9 wins
- 19 Sept0.00 · roster change42.9 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change42.9 wins
- 24 Sept-0.05 · trigger not stated42.8 wins
- 25 Sept+0.02 · roster change42.9 wins
- 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.9 wins
- 27 Sept+0.09 · roster change43.0 wins
- 28 Sept+0.08 · roster change43.0 wins
- 29 Sept-0.13 · roster change42.9 wins
- 30 Sept+0.02 · roster change42.9 wins
- 1 Oct+0.37 · roster change43.3 wins
- 2 Oct+0.31 · roster change43.6 wins
- 3 Oct-0.28 · roster change43.3 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change43.3 wins
- 5 Oct-0.37 · roster change43.0 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change43.0 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change43.0 wins
- 8 Oct+0.02 · roster change43.0 wins
- 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change43.0 wins
- 11 Oct+0.03 · roster change43.0 wins
- 12 Oct0.00 · roster change43.0 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated43.0 wins
- 14 Oct+0.15 · roster change43.2 wins
- 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change43.1 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change43.1 wins
- 17 Oct+0.54 · roster change43.7 wins
- 18 Oct-0.10 · roster change43.6 wins
- 19 Oct-0.38 · roster change43.2 wins
- 20 Oct+0.02 · roster change43.2 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change43.2 wins
- 22 Oct+0.04 · roster change43.3 wins
- 23 Oct-2.93 · roster change40.3 wins
- 24 Oct+0.01 · roster change40.4 wins
- 25 Oct-3.93 · roster change36.4 wins
- 26 Oct+0.01 · roster change36.4 wins
- 27 Oct+3.07 · roster change39.5 wins
- 28 Oct-1.28 · roster change38.2 wins
- 29 Oct-0.18 · roster change38.0 wins
- 30 Oct-3.69 · roster change34.4 wins
- 31 Oct+0.56 · roster change34.9 wins
- 1 Nov+2.90 · roster change37.8 wins
- 2 Nov-0.19 · roster change37.6 wins
- 3 Nov-1.93 · roster change35.7 wins
- 4 Nov-1.38 · roster change34.3 wins
- 5 Nov+0.23 · roster change34.5 wins
- 6 Nov-0.04 · roster change34.5 wins
- 7 Nov-1.89 · roster change32.6 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
Orlando would win about 33 games; the model gives it a margin of 22 to 43 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 22–43. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 22 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 43 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will Orlando Magic win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
Orlando Magic: 32.6 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season