SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 1 May 2021

WAS124–125DAL
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 76% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsWAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when WAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · WAS

Russell Westbrook
Bradley Beal
Raul Neto
Rui Hachimura
Davis Bertans

Westbrook · Beal · Neto · Hachimura · Bertans

Closing lineup · DAL

Dorian Finney-Smith
Luka Doncic
Josh Richardson
Willie Cauley-Stein
Tim Hardaway Jr.

Finney-Smith · Doncic · Richardson · Cauley-Stein · Hardaway

Q1Q2Q3Q4
WAS
Russell Westbrook

Russell Westbrook

40′ · -3

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

37′ · 0

Raul Neto

Raul Neto

29′ · +12

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

29′ · -3

Alex Len

Alex Len

5′ · -11

Davis Bertans

Davis Bertans

26′ · +4

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

25′ · -7

Ish Smith

Ish Smith

24′ · -3

Chandler Hutchison

Chandler Hutchison

8′ · -11

Robin Lopez

Robin Lopez

18′ · +17

DAL
Dorian Finney-Smith

Dorian Finney-Smith

40′ · +4

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

39′ · +6

Maxi Kleber

Maxi Kleber

27′ · -6

Josh Richardson

Josh Richardson

23′ · -6

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

19′ · +1

Willie Cauley-Stein

Willie Cauley-Stein

27′ · -3

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

27′ · +7

Jalen Brunson

Jalen Brunson

15′ · -9

Nicolo Melli

Nicolo Melli

10′ · +2

Trey Burke

Trey Burke

12′ · +9

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Washington Wizards

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Beal, and Neto played 10.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Westbrook, Lopez, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Beal, Len, and Neto played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Powell played 10.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hardaway, and Burke played 7.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Cauley-Stein, Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Doncic played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Washington Wizards

  • Hutchison, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Bertans played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hutchison, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Lopez, Smith, Bertans, Beal, and Neto played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Beal, and Neto played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, Bertans, and Beal played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Smith, and Beal played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, Bertans, and Neto played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Hachimura, Westbrook, Lopez, Smith, and Bertans played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Smith, Beal, and Neto played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hachimura, Gafford, Westbrook, Bertans, and Beal played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Finney-Smith, Doncic, Hardaway, Burke, and Powell played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Cauley-Stein, Richardson, Brunson, Melli, and Hardaway played 4.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Richardson, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Powell played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Doncic played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Cauley-Stein, Brunson, Doncic, Melli, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Cauley-Stein, Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, and Hardaway played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Brunson, Doncic, and Powell played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Finney-Smith, Kleber, Doncic, Hardaway, and Powell played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
4351
22.7% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Scoring
249
combined points
24.8 above the season average (224.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors