Win probability changed during the game. · 12 May 2021
It was more exciting than 63% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Martin · Olynyk · Augustin · Tate · Brooks
Closing lineup · LAL
Horton-Tucker · Caldwell-Pope · Matthews · Kuzma · McLemore
Khyri Thomas
37′ · -1
KJ Martin
37′ · -2
Kelly Olynyk
25′ · -5
D.J. Augustin
24′ · -3
Jae'Sean Tate
23′ · +17
Anthony Lamb
34′ · -18
Armoni Brooks
37′ · -1
Cameron Oliver
23′ · +3
Talen Horton-Tucker
37′ · +2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
31′ · +7
Wesley Matthews
24′ · -7
Markieff Morris
23′ · +9
Andre Drummond
22′ · +9
Kyle Kuzma
32′ · +3
Ben McLemore
26′ · -1
Montrezl Harrell
26′ · -8
Alfonzo McKinnie
17′ · -1
Devontae Cacok
4′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Oliver, Thomas, Brooks, Martin, and Lamb played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Thomas, Martin, Tate, Augustin, and Olynyk played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Thomas, Brooks, Martin, Lamb, and Olynyk played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Horton-Tucker, Matthews, Morris, Drummond, and Caldwell-Pope played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Harrell, McKinnie, Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, and McLemore played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Kuzma, Morris, Drummond, McLemore, and Caldwell-Pope played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Oliver, Thomas, Brooks, Lamb, and Tate played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Martin, Lamb, Augustin, and Olynyk played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Oliver, Brooks, Lamb, Tate, and Augustin played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Martin, Tate, Augustin, and Olynyk played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Thomas, Martin, Lamb, Augustin, and Olynyk played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Oliver, Thomas, Brooks, Martin, and Augustin played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Los Angeles Lakers
Harrell, Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Matthews, and Caldwell-Pope played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Morris, Drummond, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Matthews, Morris, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Harrell, McKinnie, Horton-Tucker, Matthews, and McLemore played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Harrell, McKinnie, Horton-Tucker, Cacok, and McLemore played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Matthews, Drummond, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Harrell, Kuzma, Horton-Tucker, Cacok, and McLemore played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Harrell, McKinnie, Kuzma, Matthews, and McLemore played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Harrell, McKinnie, Kuzma, McLemore, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

