Win probability changed during the game. · 4 January 2023
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Hayes · Bogdanovic · Stewart · Burks · Bey
Closing lineup · GSW
DiVincenzo · Thompson · Looney · Lamb · Jerome
Killian Hayes
35′ · +12
Bojan Bogdanovic
33′ · +5
Jalen Duren
32′ · +5
Isaiah Stewart
31′ · +4
Jaden Ivey
27′ · -3
Alec Burks
31′ · 0
Saddiq Bey
29′ · -3
Hamidou Diallo
18′ · -5
Rodney McGruder
5′ · 0
Donte DiVincenzo
34′ · -14
Klay Thompson
34′ · 0
Jordan Poole
34′ · +4
Draymond Green
30′ · 0
Kevon Looney
28′ · -5
Anthony Lamb
28′ · +2
Ty Jerome
27′ · -2
Moses Moody
15′ · +3
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
11′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Hayes, Stewart, Ivey, Duren, and Bogdanovic played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Hayes, Bey, Stewart, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Diallo, Bey, Stewart, Ivey, and Burks played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Thompson, and Green played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, Thompson, and Green played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Jerome, Poole, Moody, Baldwin, and Green played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Diallo, Bey, Ivey, Duren, and Burks played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Hayes, Duren, Burks, Bogdanovic, and McGruder played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Diallo, Hayes, Bey, Duren, and Bogdanovic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hayes, Bey, Duren, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Diallo, Hayes, Bey, Duren, and Burks played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Jerome, Poole, Lamb, and Moody played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Thompson played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Poole, Lamb, and Thompson played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
DiVincenzo, Jerome, Poole, Baldwin, and Green played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jerome, Lamb, Moody, Thompson, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Looney, Jerome, Lamb, Moody, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Baldwin, and Thompson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
DiVincenzo, Jerome, Baldwin, Thompson, and Green played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Lamb, and Moody played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Looney, DiVincenzo, Jerome, Poole, and Lamb played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

