Win probability changed during the game. · 16 January 2023
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Beasley · Clarkson · Kessler · Conley · Agbaji
Closing lineup · MIN
Edwards · Anderson · Russell · McDaniels · Prince
Malik Beasley
33′ · +4
Jordan Clarkson
33′ · +3
Walker Kessler
31′ · 0
Mike Conley
30′ · +9
Jarred Vanderbilt
26′ · -2
Ochai Agbaji
31′ · +3
Collin Sexton
26′ · -1
Rudy Gay
10′ · -9
Talen Horton-Tucker
8′ · -5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
10′ · +3
Anthony Edwards
36′ · -2
Kyle Anderson
34′ · -8
D'Angelo Russell
31′ · +3
Jaden McDaniels
21′ · +11
Rudy Gobert
5′ · 0
Naz Reid
22′ · -6
Taurean Prince
22′ · -2
Austin Rivers
27′ · -4
Jaylen Nowell
22′ · +2
Luka Garza
11′ · -3
Nathan Knight
9′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and MIN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 9.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Agbaji, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, and Agbaji played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 7.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Anderson played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Prince, Nowell, Edwards, Knight, and Rivers played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Horton-Tucker, and Clarkson played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Sexton, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Agbaji, and Gay played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Agbaji, and Clarkson played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Sexton, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, and Kessler played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Conley played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sexton, Vanderbilt, Agbaji, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Alexander-Walker, Kessler, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sexton, Agbaji, Kessler, Gay, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Vanderbilt, Alexander-Walker, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Horton-Tucker, Agbaji, Kessler, and Conley played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Beasley, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Conley, and Clarkson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Russell, Prince, Nowell, Garza, and Rivers played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Russell, Nowell, Knight, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Prince, Edwards, Garza, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Russell, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Russell, Prince, Edwards, Garza, and Anderson played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Russell, Prince, Nowell, Reid, and Rivers played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Nowell, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Prince, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Prince, Nowell, Garza, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Nowell, McDaniels, Knight, and Rivers played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Nowell, Reid, Edwards, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Prince, Reid, Edwards, and Anderson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Prince, Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Edwards, McDaniels, Rivers, and Anderson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Nowell, Edwards, McDaniels, Garza, and Anderson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Prince, Nowell, Reid, Edwards, and Rivers played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

