Win probability changed during the game. · 28 January 2024
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when TOR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · TOR
Barnes · Brown · Trent · Young · Nwora
Closing lineup · ATL
Johnson · Young · Bey · Bogdanovic · Capela
Scottie Barnes
38′ · -11
Bruce Brown
37′ · -22
Dennis Schroder
29′ · +7
Gary Trent Jr.
26′ · -19
Thaddeus Young
22′ · -18
Gradey Dick
25′ · +19
Jontay Porter
19′ · +14
Jordan Nwora
31′ · +11
Chris Boucher
13′ · +14
Jalen Johnson
42′ · +6
Trae Young
42′ · +8
Saddiq Bey
41′ · +19
Bogdan Bogdanovic
39′ · +17
Clint Capela
28′ · +19
Patty Mills
15′ · -18
Trent Forrest
6′ · -7
Onyeka Okongwu
20′ · -18
Garrison Mathews
8′ · -21
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Toronto Raptors
Brown, Trent, Barnes, Young, and Schroder played 12.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Boucher, Porter, Nwora, Dick, and Schroder played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Brown, Porter, Nwora, Barnes, and Dick played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Bey, Johnson, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 26.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Mills played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 16 points.
Young, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Toronto Raptors
Brown, Trent, Nwora, Barnes, and Schroder played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Boucher, Nwora, Barnes, Dick, and Young played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Trent, Nwora, Barnes, and Dick played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Trent, Nwora, Young, and Schroder played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Trent, Nwora, Barnes, and Young played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Boucher, Brown, Barnes, Young, and Schroder played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Boucher, Porter, Nwora, Barnes, and Dick played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brown, Porter, Trent, Barnes, and Dick played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Trent, Barnes, Dick, and Young played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, Nwora, Barnes, Dick, and Young played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Atlanta Hawks
Young, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Mills played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okongwu, Bey, Forrest, Mills, and Bogdanovic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, Forrest, and Bogdanovic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bey, Forrest, Mills, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Young, Okongwu, Johnson, Mills, and Bogdanovic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

