SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 2 February 2024

NOP114–113SAS
Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ SAS winsNOP wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on SAS's side, but NOP won 114-113. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when NOP does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · NOP

Zion Williamson
Brandon Ingram
Naji Marshall
Dyson Daniels
Jose Alvarado

Williamson · Ingram · Marshall · Daniels · Alvarado

Closing lineup · SAS

Devin Vassell
Tre Jones
Jeremy Sochan
Victor Wembanyama
Doug McDermott

Vassell · Jones · Sochan · Wembanyama · McDermott

Q1Q2Q3Q4
NOP
CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum

39′ · +13

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson

36′ · +15

Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram

36′ · -6

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

27′ · -18

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

27′ · -15

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

17′ · -19

Jordan Hawkins

Jordan Hawkins

11′ · 0

Cody Zeller

Cody Zeller

8′ · +6

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

21′ · +20

Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado

19′ · +9

SAS
Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

36′ · +7

Tre Jones

Tre Jones

35′ · -4

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

31′ · +11

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

30′ · -3

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama

28′ · -9

Zach Collins

Zach Collins

20′ · +8

Cedi Osman

Cedi Osman

19′ · -6

Blake Wesley

Blake Wesley

13′ · +3

Malaki Branham

Malaki Branham

16′ · -4

Doug McDermott

Doug McDermott

12′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and SAS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Ingram, Williamson, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 13.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Williamson, Alvarado, Daniels, and McCollum played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Williamson, Daniels, Hawkins, McCollum, and Zeller played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 14.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Osman, Collins, Vassell, Wesley, and Sochan played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Osman, Jones, Branham, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Ingram, Alvarado, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Hawkins, and Zeller played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ingram, Marshall, Hawkins, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Daniels, and Valanciunas played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Williamson, Marshall, Alvarado, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Williamson, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, and Valanciunas played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Ingram, Williamson, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Osman, Collins, Vassell, Champagnie, and Wesley played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Collins, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Jones, Champagnie, Branham, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Collins, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Branham played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Osman, Vassell, Jones, Branham, and Wembanyama played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jones, Branham, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Collins, Vassell, Branham, Wesley, and Sochan played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.207
93.8% of capacity
Frost Bank Center · San Antonio
Scoring
227
combined points
1.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

21 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Violation: Defensive Goaltending · 00:09.9
Brandon Ingram → Victor Wembanyama
Ingram (NOP) makes contact with the ball while it is still in the imaginary cylinder above the rim.
Turnover: Offensive Goaltending · 00:11.1
Victor Wembanyama → Pelicans
Wembanyama (SAS) makes contact with the ball while it is still in the imaginary cylinder above the rim.