Win probability changed during the game. · 21 November 2024
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Suggs · Wagner · Bitadze · Black · Isaac
Closing lineup · LAL
Knecht · Davis · James · Reaves · Russell
Jalen Suggs
40′ · +6
Franz Wagner
39′ · +5
Tristan da Silva
32′ · +10
Goga Bitadze
30′ · +13
Gary Harris
26′ · +1
Moritz Wagner
18′ · -12
Anthony Black
22′ · -6
Jonathan Isaac
18′ · -7
Jett Howard
11′ · -7
Cole Anthony
4′ · +2
Dalton Knecht
39′ · +5
Anthony Davis
38′ · 0
LeBron James
37′ · -8
Austin Reaves
33′ · -8
Cam Reddish
21′ · +1
Max Christie
25′ · -2
D'Angelo Russell
23′ · +2
Gabe Vincent
14′ · +6
Christian Koloko
10′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, da Silva, and Harris played 19.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and Howard played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Wagner, da Silva, and Harris played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Reddish, Reaves, Knecht, Davis, and James played 11.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Reddish, Reaves, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Reaves, Christie, Knecht, Davis, and James played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and da Silva played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, Suggs, and Black played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Wagner, Wagner, Black, and Howard played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Wagner, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Suggs, and Black played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and Harris played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wagner, Wagner, Suggs, da Silva, and Harris played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Vincent, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Russell, Vincent, Koloko, Knecht, and James played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Reaves, Knecht, Davis, and James played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Vincent, Christie, Koloko, and James played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Vincent, Knecht, Davis, and James played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Russell, Reaves, Christie, Koloko, and James played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Reddish, Reaves, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Reaves, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

