Win probability changed during the game. · 10 February 2025
It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 42 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Monk · Sabonis · DeRozan · LaVine · Lyles
Closing lineup · DAL
Irving · Edwards · Prosper · Dinwiddie · Christie
Malik Monk
43′ · +8
Domantas Sabonis
42′ · +19
DeMar DeRozan
39′ · +21
Zach LaVine
38′ · +6
Keegan Murray
30′ · -3
Keon Ellis
32′ · -13
Jake LaRavia
13′ · -17
Trey Lyles
10′ · -10
Jonas Valanciunas
18′ · -6
Kyrie Irving
44′ · -7
Klay Thompson
26′ · -14
Kessler Edwards
26′ · -10
Dante Exum
19′ · -7
Daniel Gafford
10′ · +9
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
34′ · -21
Spencer Dinwiddie
34′ · +8
Max Christie
35′ · +23
Naji Marshall
27′ · +5
Jaden Hardy
9′ · +10
Kylor Kelley
1′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Monk, Murray, DeRozan, and LaVine played 19.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Lyles, Monk, Ellis, LaRavia, and Valanciunas played 9.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Sabonis, Murray, Ellis, DeRozan, and LaVine played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Marshall, Christie, Prosper, Irving, and Dinwiddie played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Marshall, Edwards, Christie, Irving, and Dinwiddie played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Edwards, Prosper, Irving, Thompson, and Exum played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Monk, Ellis, DeRozan, and LaVine played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Ellis, DeRozan, and Valanciunas played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Sabonis, Ellis, DeRozan, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sabonis, Ellis, LaRavia, DeRozan, and LaVine played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sabonis, Monk, Murray, Ellis, and LaRavia played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Murray, Ellis, and LaVine played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Monk, Murray, Ellis, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sabonis, Monk, DeRozan, Valanciunas, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Dallas Mavericks
Gafford, Edwards, Irving, Thompson, and Exum played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Edwards, Christie, Prosper, Irving, and Exum played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Christie, Prosper, Irving, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Marshall, Prosper, Irving, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, Christie, and Dinwiddie played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Christie, Prosper, Irving, Thompson, and Exum played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Edwards, Hardy, Prosper, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Gafford, Marshall, Christie, Irving, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Edwards, Christie, Irving, Thompson, and Exum played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Marshall, Hardy, Christie, Prosper, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Edwards, Prosper, Irving, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Gafford, Marshall, Hardy, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

