SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 9 April 2025

SAS114–111GSW
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 64% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ GSW winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

Harrison Barnes
Stephon Castle
Devin Vassell
Keldon Johnson
Julian Champagnie

Barnes · Castle · Vassell · Johnson · Champagnie

Closing lineup · GSW

Jimmy Butler III
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Brandin Podziemski
Moses Moody

Butler · Curry · Green · Podziemski · Moody

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

36′ · +3

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

35′ · -15

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

29′ · -9

Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

28′ · -9

Bismack Biyombo

Bismack Biyombo

11′ · -19

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

31′ · +20

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

29′ · +18

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Sandro Mamukelashvili

23′ · +10

Blake Wesley

Blake Wesley

19′ · +14

GSW
Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III

38′ · -9

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

37′ · +13

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

33′ · -6

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski

33′ · 0

Moses Moody

Moses Moody

31′ · -3

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

26′ · -1

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

18′ · -2

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

12′ · 0

Gui Santos

Gui Santos

8′ · -8

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Trayce Jackson-Davis

3′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and GSW.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Vassell, Castle, Biyombo, and Barnes played 10.7 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barnes played 5.8 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, and Castle played 5.2 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each San Antonio Spurs lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Golden State Warriors

  • Moody, Podziemski, Curry, Butler, and Green played 14.4 minutes together.

  • Hield, Podziemski, Curry, Butler, and Green played 6.6 minutes together.

  • Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Podziemski, and Butler played 4.4 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Johnson, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barnes played 4.7 minutes together.

  • Paul, Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, and Castle played 4.7 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.

  • Paul, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, Castle, and Barnes played 3.6 minutes together.

  • Paul, Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, and Barnes played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Wesley, and Castle played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Paul, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Castle, and Barnes played 1.9 minutes together.

  • Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Santos, and Curry played 3.9 minutes together.

  • Moody, Santos, Podziemski, Butler, and Green played 3.8 minutes together.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Moody, Curry, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Moody, Jackson-Davis, and Curry played 2.8 minutes together.

  • Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, Butler, and Green played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Hield, Moody, Curry, Butler, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Looney, Hield, Moody, Curry, and Butler played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Looney, Hield, Podziemski, Curry, and Butler played 1.2 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.064
100% of capacity
Chase Center · San Francisco
Scoring
225
combined points
2.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed4 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:03.0
Jimmy Butler III → Harrison Barnes
Butler III (GSW) moves forward into Barnes (SAS), initiating illegal contact that moves him off his spot. The illegal contact precedes any traveling violation caused by the contact.
Foul: Shooting · 00:11.9
Draymond Green → Keldon Johnson
Green (GSW) closes out during the layup attempt by Johnson (SAS) and initiates illegal contact to his lower body, affecting his ability to return to the floor.
Foul: Offensive · 01:00.2
Draymond Green → Stephon Castle
Green (GSW) takes an additional step late into Castle (SAS), delivering contact during the screen.
Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 01:08.0
Keldon Johnson → Moses Moody
Moody (GSW) is the last player to touch the ball before it goes out of bounds. Possession should have been awarded to San Antonio.