Win probability changed during the game. · 4 December 2025
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
Reaves · James · Hachimura · Ayton · LaRavia
Closing lineup · TOR
Mamukelashvili · Ingram · Barnes · Quickley · Shead
Austin Reaves
41′ · +6
LeBron James
36′ · -1
Rui Hachimura
35′ · +4
Deandre Ayton
32′ · -1
Gabe Vincent
24′ · 0
Jake LaRavia
28′ · +1
Jaxson Hayes
16′ · +4
Nick Smith Jr.
14′ · +6
Adou Thiero
10′ · -2
Dalton Knecht
3′ · -2
Sandro Mamukelashvili
37′ · -2
Brandon Ingram
36′ · -3
Scottie Barnes
36′ · +3
Immanuel Quickley
32′ · -11
Ja'Kobe Walter
25′ · -3
Collin Murray-Boyles
16′ · -1
Jamal Shead
21′ · +1
Gradey Dick
16′ · -3
Jamison Battle
16′ · +5
Jonathan Mogbo
5′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and TOR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 12.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and James played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Vincent, Hayes, LaRavia, Smith, and James played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Walter played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Shead played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Ingram, Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton, Reaves, Knecht, Thiero, and James played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, Smith, and Thiero played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and Smith played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Thiero played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ayton, Vincent, Smith, Thiero, and James played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hachimura, Vincent, Hayes, Reaves, and Smith played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hachimura, Vincent, Hayes, Reaves, and LaRavia played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and LaRavia played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Toronto Raptors
Ingram, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Shead, and Battle played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Barnes, Dick, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Dick, Walter, and Mogbo played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Dick, and Battle played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Dick played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Dick, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Mogbo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

