SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 20 December 2025

ORL128–127UTA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ UTA winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when ORL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ORL

Paolo Banchero
Anthony Black
Desmond Bane
Wendell Carter Jr.
Jonathan Isaac

Banchero · Black · Bane · Carter · Isaac

Closing lineup · UTA

Keyonte George
Ace Bailey
Svi Mykhailiuk
Brice Sensabaugh
Kevin Love

George · Bailey · Mykhailiuk · Sensabaugh · Love

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
ORL
Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero

42′ · +1

Anthony Black

Anthony Black

40′ · -3

Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

39′ · -2

Wendell Carter Jr.

Wendell Carter Jr.

37′ · -1

Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones

18′ · +5

Jett Howard

Jett Howard

15′ · -1

Jase Richardson

Jase Richardson

23′ · +8

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

16′ · +2

Jonathan Isaac

Jonathan Isaac

11′ · 0

Noah Penda

Noah Penda

24′ · -8

UTA
Keyonte George

Keyonte George

42′ · +7

Ace Bailey

Ace Bailey

34′ · 0

Svi Mykhailiuk

Svi Mykhailiuk

31′ · 0

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

21′ · -5

Kyle Filipowski

Kyle Filipowski

21′ · -7

Brice Sensabaugh

Brice Sensabaugh

25′ · +3

Isaiah Collier

Isaiah Collier

28′ · +6

Taylor Hendricks

Taylor Hendricks

11′ · -2

Kevin Love

Kevin Love

32′ · +4

Walter Clayton Jr.

Walter Clayton Jr.

8′ · -6

Cody Williams

Cody Williams

13′ · -5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and UTA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Orlando Magic

  • Jones, Carter, Bane, Banchero, and Black played 12.9 minutes together.

  • Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 10.3 minutes together.

  • Carter, Banchero, Black, Howard, and Richardson played 8.1 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Orlando Magic lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Utah Jazz

  • Mykhailiuk, George, Collier, Bailey, and Love played 11.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 14 points.

  • Mykhailiuk, George, Filipowski, Bailey, and Nurkic played 8.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • George, Sensabaugh, Williams, Filipowski, and Love played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Orlando Magic

  • Isaac, Bitadze, Bane, Richardson, and Penda played 5.9 minutes together.

  • Isaac, Bitadze, Bane, Howard, and Richardson played 4.5 minutes together.

  • Jones, Carter, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 3.8 minutes together.

  • Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Howard, and Richardson played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Richardson, and Penda played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Richardson played 1.4 minutes together.

Utah Jazz

  • Hendricks, George, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Love played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Clayton, Bailey, and Nurkic played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Clayton, and Love played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Bailey, and Nurkic played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Mykhailiuk, George, Sensabaugh, Filipowski, and Nurkic played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mykhailiuk, George, Collier, Bailey, and Nurkic played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hendricks, Sensabaugh, Clayton, Bailey, and Love played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • George, Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, and Love played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Mykhailiuk, George, Filipowski, Bailey, and Love played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Mykhailiuk, Hendricks, George, Collier, and Love played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.186
99.3% of capacity
Delta Center · Salt Lake City
Scoring
255
combined points
23.8 above the season average (231.2)