Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2025
It was more exciting than 25% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Pritchard · Gonzalez · Simons · Garza · Scheierman
Closing lineup · IND
Thompson · Potter · Furphy · Jones · Peter
Payton Pritchard
38′ · +8
Derrick White
33′ · +16
Jaylen Brown
32′ · +19
Neemias Queta
21′ · -3
Jordan Walsh
19′ · -5
Hugo Gonzalez
12′ · -13
Anfernee Simons
21′ · +7
Luka Garza
27′ · +26
Sam Hauser
17′ · +17
Baylor Scheierman
20′ · +18
Andrew Nembhard
30′ · -17
Bennedict Mathurin
30′ · -13
Pascal Siakam
28′ · -10
Jay Huff
21′ · -2
Quenton Jackson
16′ · +3
Ethan Thompson
26′ · -8
Jarace Walker
18′ · -19
Tony Bradley
7′ · -6
T.J. McConnell
14′ · -18
Micah Potter
18′ · -7
Johnny Furphy
18′ · -5
Kam Jones
7′ · +6
Taelon Peter
7′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Walsh played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Pritchard, Garza, Hauser, and Walsh played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Brown, White, Pritchard, Garza, and Scheierman played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Mathurin, and Jackson played 14.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Thompson, Potter, Furphy, Jones, and Peter played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Thompson, Potter, Walker, Furphy, and McConnell played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
White, Simons, Queta, Scheierman, and Gonzalez played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
White, Simons, Garza, Hauser, and Gonzalez played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Scheierman played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Gonzalez played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, White, Simons, Pritchard, and Garza played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Simons, Pritchard, Garza, Hauser, and Walsh played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
White, Simons, Queta, Hauser, and Scheierman played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Simons, Pritchard, Garza, Hauser, and Scheierman played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
White, Simons, Garza, Scheierman, and Gonzalez played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Simons, Pritchard, Garza, and Hauser played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Simons, Pritchard, Garza, Scheierman, and Gonzalez played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Huff, Thompson, and Mathurin played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Potter, Walker, Furphy, and McConnell played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Bradley, Thompson, Walker, and McConnell played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bradley, Nembhard, Thompson, Mathurin, and Walker played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Bradley, Nembhard, Thompson, and Mathurin played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Nembhard, Thompson, Potter, Mathurin, and Walker played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Nembhard, Thompson, Mathurin, and Furphy played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Bradley, Thompson, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Nembhard, Huff, Mathurin, Jackson, and Walker played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

