Win probability changed during the game. · 20 March 2026
It was more exciting than 69% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
White · Pritchard · Scheierman · Gonzalez · Harper
Closing lineup · MEM
Prosper · Small · Burton · Spencer · Clayton
Jaylen Brown
38′ · +9
Derrick White
36′ · -2
Jayson Tatum
31′ · -5
Sam Hauser
21′ · -6
Neemias Queta
18′ · 0
Luka Garza
27′ · +9
Payton Pritchard
32′ · +9
Baylor Scheierman
23′ · +7
Hugo Gonzalez
15′ · +7
Ron Harper Jr.
0′ · -3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
31′ · +2
Taylor Hendricks
29′ · -2
Javon Small
26′ · +16
Ty Jerome
25′ · +3
Jaylen Wells
20′ · -2
Tyler Burton
32′ · -8
Cam Spencer
23′ · -8
DeJon Jarreau
27′ · -10
Walter Clayton Jr.
27′ · -16
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Hauser played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Pritchard, Garza, Scheierman, and Gonzalez played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
White, Pritchard, Garza, Scheierman, and Gonzalez played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jerome, Hendricks, Prosper, Wells, and Small played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jarreau, Burton, Prosper, Clayton, and Small played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jarreau, Burton, Hendricks, Spencer, and Clayton played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Garza, and Scheierman played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Queta, and Pritchard played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Tatum, White, Pritchard, Garza, and Hauser played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Pritchard, and Scheierman played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Garza, and Hauser played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard, and Hauser played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Garza, and Scheierman played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jerome, Burton, Hendricks, Spencer, and Wells played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jarreau, Burton, Prosper, Spencer, and Clayton played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Burton, Prosper, Spencer, Clayton, and Small played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jerome, Jarreau, Prosper, Wells, and Small played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jerome, Jarreau, Burton, Hendricks, and Spencer played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Jerome, Jarreau, Burton, Hendricks, and Clayton played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Burton, Hendricks, Spencer, Clayton, and Small played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jerome, Jarreau, Prosper, Wells, and Clayton played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

