Similar profiles
JT Toppin
PF · Texas Tech
Perimeter scorer
What college players who played like him went on to do · NCAA 2026 (25 games, 34.8 min)
Outlook computed on 13 Sept 2026 · Draft 2027
NBA reach history
8 / 30 — Of the 30 college players who genuinely resembled him, 8 reached the NBAUncommon profile: fewer than 30 analogs fall inside the threshold, so the cohort was filled with the nearest ones even though they resemble him less.
What became of them
Distant comps · 25 NBA analogs · median distance 2.568
Style comps
What do they share? rebounds like a big · the offense runs through him · protects the rim
What do they share? attacks the offensive glass · rebounds like a big · scores heavily for his minutes · the offense runs through him
What do they share? rebounds like a big · attacks the offensive glass · scores heavily for his minutes · protects the rim
Similarity of STYLE, not of quality: it measures how someone plays, not who is better. Every career in the cohort actually happened — it describes what became of similar profiles, and is not a forecast about this player.
Back-tested on 3,259 college players judged without looking at anything after their season. The reach history SEPARATES (AUC 0.71) — but mostly it tells "looks like an NBA player" from "doesn't": within each quintile AUC drops to 0.51-0.61, and among Draft Combine invitees to 0.50. The ordering of careers within the cohort does NOT hold (Spearman 0.10). It is a record, not a forecast.
Method: per-40-minute production and shot profile, standardized within his own season; Euclidean distance against 26.550 college seasons from 2005-2021 with a known NBA outcome. No language model in any decision.