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Shelton Henderson

Similar profiles

Shelton Henderson

SF · Miami

Rotation wing

What college players who played like him went on to do · NCAA 2026 (35 games, 31.3 min)

Outlook computed on 13 Sept 2026 · Draft 2027

NBA reach history

25 / 280 — Of the 280 college players who genuinely resembled him, 25 reached the NBA

What became of them

Highest career in the cohort
DeMar DeRozan
NCAA 2009 · pick #9 in 2009
17 seasons · 1264 games · peak 38.2 min / 22.7 pts
Median career in the cohort
Terrence Shannon Jr
NCAA 2021 · pick #27 in 2024
2 seasons · 75 games · peak 12.4 min / 5.6 pts
Lower quartile of the cohort
Nigel Hayes-Davis
NCAA 2016 · undrafted
2 seasons · 36 games · peak 7.2 min / 1.3 pts

Typical comps · 25 NBA analogs · median distance 1.994

Style comps

Wesley Matthews
Closeness: Medium · d 1.43
NCAA 2007 · undrafted · 15 seasons, 986 games

What do they share? misses from three

Kris Joseph
Closeness: Medium · d 1.472
NCAA 2010 · pick #51 in 2012 · 1 seasons, 10 games

What do they share? misses from three

Shane Edwards
Closeness: Medium · d 1.51
NCAA 2009 · undrafted · 1 seasons, 2 games

What do they share? no shared standout trait

Similarity of STYLE, not of quality: it measures how someone plays, not who is better. Every career in the cohort actually happened — it describes what became of similar profiles, and is not a forecast about this player.

Back-tested on 3,259 college players judged without looking at anything after their season. The reach history SEPARATES (AUC 0.71) — but mostly it tells "looks like an NBA player" from "doesn't": within each quintile AUC drops to 0.51-0.61, and among Draft Combine invitees to 0.50. The ordering of careers within the cohort does NOT hold (Spearman 0.10). It is a record, not a forecast.

Method: per-40-minute production and shot profile, standardized within his own season; Euclidean distance against 26.550 college seasons from 2005-2021 with a known NBA outcome. No language model in any decision.

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