FORECAST · WNBA
What Forecast expects
Each game's probability, explained in basketball terms: why, what could flip it, what we don't know and how the model has performed.
Preview saved before the gameAs of 24 Sept49 games with a forecast
Previews saved before tip-off and compared with the result.
23 AugATL @ PHXFavourite · ATL 67%PHX 89 – ATL 99Correct23 AugCON @ LAFavourite · LA 57%LA 77 – CON 68Correct22 AugIND @ NYFavourite · IND 53%NY 109 – IND 102Missed22 AugPOR @ TORFavourite · POR 60%TOR 82 – POR 79Missed21 AugGS @ CHIFavourite · GS 74%CHI 73 – GS 70Missed21 AugMIN @ WSHFavourite · MIN 65%WSH 84 – MIN 94Correct21 AugCON @ LVFavourite · LV 81%LV 101 – CON 78Correct21 AugATL @ LAFavourite · ATL 71%LA 88 – ATL 124Correct19 AugTOR @ WSHFavourite · WSH 81%WSH 93 – TOR 82Correct
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD
Measured over 49 games: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172.
On those same games the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.