What if…?
Without Nigel Hayes-Davis, Phoenix Suns were 1.6 points per game better
27 games with him · 22 without, in 2025-26
1.6
points per game
The question
What would have changed if Nigel Hayes-Davis had not played?
The evidence
Without Nigel Hayes-Davis, Phoenix Suns were 1.6 points per game better
The fact
What actually happened, game by game, in 2025-26. None of this is an estimate.
With Nigel Hayes-Davis in the box score
+2.22 points per game
27 games · 15-12 · 115.4 – 113.1
Without him
+3.86 points per game
22 games · 15-7 · 112.8 – 109.0
The assumptions
What we decided in order to answer. If an assumption does not hold for you, neither does the answer.
- That the 22 games without him represent a whole season without him.
- That opponent quality is spread evenly across both groups. We have not controlled for it.
- That other absences do not systematically coincide with his.
The estimated result
Arithmetic on the two figures above, nothing else: the per-game difference carried over a 82-game season.
- points of margin per game+1.64
- Across 82 games that is +134 points of accumulated margin.
FactDerivedAssumption
What this does not prove
- This does not say he is the cause. A team without its best player also changes rotation, opponent and schedule at the same time.
- It rests on 22 games without him. At that sample size, a couple of odd games move the number.
- It is not a forecast for next season: it is what happened in the one already played.
From here
Where it comes from
Source
2026-01-30
Model input
not stated
Computation
not stated
This answer
2026-10-12
Where this comes from