SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Phoenix Suns

Updated · 7 Nov

Phoenix drops from 45 to 32 wins.

32.1projected wins21–43forecast interval45wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Devin Booker

Devin Booker

Mark Williams is the player who weighs most in this projection: +2.9 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Devin Booker29.872.62,149
Miles Bridges27.973.82,042
Collin Gillespie25.170.61,760
Dillon Brooks24.770.11,720
Jalen Green23.767.41,586
Oso Ighodaro20.862.91,301
Ryan Dunn17.871.61,263
Luke Kennard19.464.61,247
Jordan Goodwin20.356.91,143
Khaman Maluach13.063.2814
Koa Peat12.845.8585
Pat Spencer13.542.7573
Mark Williams24.123.4560
Jamaree Bouyea12.542.5526
Rasheer Fleming12.538.9485
Duop Reath5.846.8269
Drew Timme9.68.985
Allocated minutes
18,108
Not assigned to players
1,572
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Devin Booker100.0 %72.6History and team context
Miles Bridges100.0 %73.8History and team context
Collin Gillespie100.0 %70.6History and team context
Dillon Brooks100.0 %70.1History and team context
Jalen Green100.0 %67.4History and team context
Oso Ighodaro100.0 %62.9History and team context
Ryan Dunn100.0 %71.6History and team context
Luke Kennard100.0 %64.6History and team context
Jordan Goodwin100.0 %56.9History and team context
Khaman Maluach100.0 %63.2History and team context
Koa Peat100.0 %45.8Historical average by draft band
Pat Spencer100.0 %42.7History and team context
Mark Williams81.7 %28.6History and team context
Jamaree Bouyea100.0 %42.5History and team context
Rasheer Fleming100.0 %38.9History and team context
Duop Reath100.0 %46.8History and team context
Drew Timme48.9 %18.3History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 38.8 to 32.1 wins.

29.045.032.114 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug38.8 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.34 · trigger not stated39.1 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 24 Aug-0.85 · roster change38.3 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change38.3 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.01 · roster change38.3 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.42 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 28 Aug+5.68 · roster change43.5 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change43.5 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.03 · roster change43.5 wins
  • 31 Aug-6.01 · roster change37.5 wins
  • 1 Sept+1.41 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 8 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.22 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 17 Sept-0.09 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 24 Sept-0.02 · trigger not stated39.0 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.04 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.05 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 29 Sept-0.39 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 30 Sept-0.05 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 1 Oct+0.85 · roster change39.5 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.17 · roster change39.7 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.11 · roster change39.6 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change39.6 wins
  • 5 Oct-0.87 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 8 Oct-0.01 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated38.7 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.02 · roster change38.8 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change38.8 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.07 · roster change38.7 wins
  • 19 Oct+0.59 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.14 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change39.1 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.05 · roster change39.2 wins
  • 23 Oct-8.61 · roster change30.6 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.03 · roster change30.6 wins
  • 25 Oct+0.44 · roster change31.0 wins
  • 26 Oct+1.80 · roster change32.8 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.10 · roster change32.7 wins
  • 28 Oct-2.20 · roster change30.5 wins
  • 29 Oct+0.16 · roster change30.7 wins
  • 30 Oct-0.01 · roster change30.7 wins
  • 31 Oct-0.42 · roster change30.3 wins
  • 1 Nov+0.02 · roster change30.3 wins
  • 2 Nov+0.12 · roster change30.4 wins
  • 3 Nov-0.19 · roster change30.2 wins
  • 4 Nov+1.08 · roster change31.3 wins
  • 5 Nov-0.20 · roster change31.1 wins
  • 6 Nov-1.02 · roster change30.1 wins
  • 7 Nov+1.98 · roster change32.1 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Phoenix would win about 32 games; the model gives it a margin of 21 to 43 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Phoenix Suns game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 21–43. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 21 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 43 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Phoenix Suns win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Phoenix Suns: 32.1 projected wins in 2026-27

32.1 winscompared against: 45 wins (-12.94 · -29 %) · Phoenix Suns in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

32.1 winscompared against: 38.8 wins (-6.73 · -17 %) · Phoenix Suns, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season