Billy Richmond III
Arkansas Razorbacks · NCAA Division I · Shooting guard/Small forward · Junior · 2.01 m
SportiveWorld evaluation
Main reading
Our lenses point lower: #23 on his signals alone, #25 by comparables.
Data and sources
Player evaluation
Why he is here
The NCAA model places him #15 of 39 — and our own lenses point lower: #23 on his signals alone, #25 by comparables. The rank rests on the environment. Market: #32.
Two independent in-house lenses point lower than our rank: without the environment he drops and the historical comparables do not follow. It is the sign that the model is crediting him with the quality of his team and schedule.
- 39 % probability of an NBA career (≥ 2,000 min). On the model's scale: context +3.76 · player +0.72. With average opponent and team, the same profile would give 1.5 %; on the environment alone, 24 %.
- Measured environment: Arkansas Razorbacks, strength +9.2 (+1.3 sd) · average opponent +6.4 (+2.7 sd) — environment #14 of 39 ranked
- His individual signal adding the most: Blocks per 40 1.2 (+0.7 sd · contribution +0.26). On his individual signals alone he would be #23 of 39.
- Historical comparables: 6 of 77 similar university seasons reached the NBA (8 %) — #25 of 33 ranked in that lens. The model gives him 66 % to reach the NBA: the comparables are more conservative than the model for all 33 ranked, which is why this lens compares ranks, not figures.
How this evaluation is produced
The NCAA model places him #15 of 39 — and our own lenses point lower: #23 on his signals alone, #25 by comparables. The rank rests on the environment. Market: #32.
Measured over 37 games with a box score · 2025-26 · Arkansas Razorbacks
- fact39 % probability of an NBA career (≥ 2,000 min). On the model's scale: context +3.76 · player +0.72. With average opponent and team, the same profile would give 1.5 %; on the environment alone, 24 %.
- factMeasured environment: Arkansas Razorbacks, strength +9.2 (+1.3 sd) · average opponent +6.4 (+2.7 sd) — environment #14 of 39 ranked
- factHis individual signal adding the most: Blocks per 40 1.2 (+0.7 sd · contribution +0.26). On his individual signals alone he would be #23 of 39.
- factHistorical comparables: 6 of 77 similar university seasons reached the NBA (8 %) — #25 of 33 ranked in that lens. The model gives him 66 % to reach the NBA: the comparables are more conservative than the model for all 33 ranked, which is why this lens compares ranks, not figures.
interpretationTwo independent in-house lenses point lower than our rank: without the environment he drops and the historical comparables do not follow. It is the sign that the model is crediting him with the quality of his team and schedule.
Where the rank comes from: how much his individual signals contribute and how much his environment (model scale). Below, the probability with an average opponent and team, and the probability on the environment alone.
Potential
Categorical reading of the ceiling the accredited evidence supports. Not a score: it starts from the NCAA model (if any) or from the market prior and only moves one level with our own evidence, declared piece by piece.
factStarts from the NCAA model: 39% probability of an NBA career (#15 of 39 measured). → High
- ◎The market (#32) does not disagree with the model enough to move the reading.
- ◎On his individual signals alone he would be #23 of 39 (≥ 8 places worse than his model #15): his rank rests on the environment. Down one level.
Evidence moves the reading one level at most, in the direction the sum of the evidence pushes. · Confidence: NCAA season with ≥ 15 games with a box score and ≥ 60% of the team's games.
Production
2025-26 · Arkansas Razorbacks · 11.2p · 4.3r · 2.0a · 27.6 min · 37 of 37 games with a box score · TS 61.7 %
By opponent level ▾
Per 40 minutes, over the games with a box score. Small samples within one season: read as a hint, not a verdict.
| pj | W-L | min | pts/40 | reb/40 | ast/40 | tov/40 | TS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37 | — | 27.6 | 16.2 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 61.7 % |
| Opponents +8 or better | 14 | 7-7 | 27.7 | 16.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 61.6 % |
| Other opponents | 23 | 21-2 | 27.6 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 61.8 % |
| Postseason | 6 | 5-1 | 35.5 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 56.1 % |
| Away / neutral | 11 | 5-6 | 29.5 | 16.9 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 59.3 % |
Measured strengths and risks
Strengths
Signals that add the most
What travels: holds up against strong opponents
—
An individual signal is transferable if it holds against opponents rated +8 or better (≥ 90% of its season value). What evaporates as the level rises is stated.
Risks and what would change our mind
Signals that subtract
—
- ▼Comparables: only 6 of 77 historical analogues reached the NBA
- ▼Junior: the model does not adjust for age or class; the same production from a freshman projects higher
Would make us move him down
- ▼The performance not travelling: without the Arkansas Razorbacks environment his signals leave him #23 of 39
- ▼Age: we do not adjust for it (Junior); the same production from a freshman projects higher
- ▼The comparables: only 8 % of 77 similar seasons reached the NBA (#25 in that lens)
- ▼More sources consolidating the consensus #32
Would make us move him up
- ▲More scoring per 40 min: today 16.2 (+0.2 sd)
- ▲A second source placing him nearby: today the consensus is a single mock
- ▲The same performance in another context (another role, a team other than Arkansas Razorbacks): it would separate the player from his environment
What to watch until the Draft
- →The 2026-27 season: every new box score is measured and can move the rank
- →The mocks: captured daily; today the consensus is 1 source(s)
- →His minutes (27.6 per game): a drop would show in the box score before any news
Context
Facts derived from the box score (Basketball-Reference formulas over the games he played) and the standings. No film or tracking data.
Role on his team
- ·Started 19 of 37 games (51%) · 27.6 min (68% of the available minutes)
- ·Usage 18.0% of his team's possessions while on the floor · 18% of its points
- ·Creation: assists 11.5% of his teammates' baskets while on the floor · 1.60 assists per turnover · 11.9% of his possessions end in a turnover
- ·Team record with him on the floor: 28-9 · estimated pace 73.1 possessions per 40 min
His team and schedule
- ·Arkansas Razorbacks · Southeastern Conference · 23-8 in the standings · 13-5 in conference
- ·Latest poll: Coaches Poll, week 21, #13 (28-9)
- ·Postseason with a box score: 6 games, 3 in the NCAA Tournament (up to Sweet 16)
- ·Team strength +9.2 (+1.3 sd in the cohort) · average opponent +6.4 (+2.7 sd): the model's two context signals
Development
The previous season (2024-25) has 5 games with a box score: too small a sample to compare.
Comparables and outlook (Scout)
Similarity of one season's statistical profile (12 axes per 40 minutes), not of playing style. 'Looks like X' means 'his season resembles it on these axes', nothing more.
Comparables and outlook (Scout)
Similarity of one season's statistical profile (12 axes per 40 minutes), not of playing style. 'Looks like X' means 'his season resembles it on these axes', nothing more.
fact6 of the 77 university seasons most like his 2025-26 reached the NBA (8 %) · statistical archetype: Rotation wing
NBA twins · what they share
Computed on 2025-26 (37 games) · 2026-09-13
Combine
NBA Draft Combine 2026 · identity: unique name within the 2024-2026 window and undrafted · rank within HIS cohort (those who did the test that year)
Combine
NBA Draft Combine 2026 · identity: unique name within the 2024-2026 window and undrafted · rank within HIS cohort (those who did the test that year)
What stands out most
percentile 100 among the SFs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 1 of 77)
interpretationLateral agility above his position: quick changes of direction, useful to defend outside
A snapshot of that day (2026): weight, vertical and times change with physical work
percentile 97 among the SFs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 3 of 77)
interpretationStraight-line speed above his position: transition and fast break
A snapshot of that day (2026): weight, vertical and times change with physical work
What falls shortest
percentile 13 among the SFs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 72 of 83)
interpretationShort standing reach for his position: in the NBA he will play 'smaller' than his height
Does not change with age: still true today (measured at the 2026 Combine)
percentile 16 among the SFs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 70 of 83)
interpretationShort length for his position: shot defence and finishing depend more on technique and vertical
Does not change with age: still true today (measured at the 2026 Combine)
All measurements · 11
Market vs SportiveWorld
Market vs SportiveWorld
Outside reference: the rank given by the cited publications. We know the rank; they do not publish the why.
factExternal consensus #32 (Tankathon #26; 1 source(s)). What we know: the rank. What we do NOT know: why they place him there — the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Does our position hold? · The three lenses
- ◎On his individual signals alone (average opponent and team) he would be #23 of 39: +8 places versus SW #15, with a 1.5 % probability
- ◎On his environment alone (opponent and team) he would be #14 of 39, with 24 %
- ◎The comparables lens places him relatively lower on the board: #25 of 33 (+10 places versus SW #15). It is a relative rank, not a rate: 8 % of 77 similar seasons reached the NBA; the model gives him 66 % to reach it
Three independent lenses against our own place: his individual signals alone, his environment alone and the historical comparables. A lens disagrees when it lands 8 places away or more. SportiveWorld can be wrong: this is where it shows.
Conviction
- ✓Sample: 37 of 37 games with a box score (100%)
- ✓Standardised by the Scout census (own season profile)
- ✗The consensus is a SINGLE source (1): it is not a market
- ✗His individual signals alone place him far from the SW rank (#23 versus #15)
- ✗Historical comparables place him far away (#25 of 33 versus SW #15)
Why this gap exists ▾
On our side the gap decomposes exactly: which dimensions push the rank up and which hold it back. On the consensus side we only see the rank: its sources publish rankings, not reasons, so why they place him there is UNKNOWN. All we can say is what our model does NOT measure.
factSportiveWorld #15 · consensus #32: 17 places higher. Pushing up: Opponent quality · Team strength · Box-score defence · Minutes · Production. Holding back: —. Consensus sources: 1.
unknownWe know the consensus rank (#32: Tankathon #26). We do not know why they place him there: the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Pushes the rank up
Holds the rank back
—
What our model does NOT measure (it could explain part of the gap; the consensus does not publish its reasons)
- ◇Age and class (Junior): the model does not adjust for them and favours the productive veteran
- ◇Physique and athleticism: measured at the 2026 Combine (below), but outside the model
- ◇Projection, film and future role: not in the box score
No appreciable weight · Creation −0.01 · Efficiency +0.03 · Outside shooting −0.06
Rank history ▾
52 captures, from 2026-09-13 to 2026-11-04
- ·2026-09-15: SW #14 → #15 · consensus #35 → #35 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-18: SW #15 → #15 · consensus #35 → #34 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-21: SW #15 → #14 · consensus #34 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-22: SW #14 → #15 · consensus #33 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-24: SW #15 → #14 · consensus #33 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-26: SW #14 → #15 · consensus #33 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-28: SW #15 → #14 · consensus #33 → #32 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-29: SW #14 → #14 · consensus #32 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-10-31: SW #14 → #15 · consensus #33 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-11-01: SW #15 → #15 · consensus #33 → #32 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-11-02: SW #15 → #15 · consensus #32 → #33 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-11-03: SW #15 → #15 · consensus #33 → #34 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
- ·2026-11-04: SW #15 → #15 · consensus #34 → #32 · no accredited cause in his own data (movement of the mocks or the rest of the board)
Movement in the mocks
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
All the model's signals
Calibrated probability of an NBA career of ≥ 2,000 minutes, given this season = 39.2 % · P(playing in the NBA) = 65.6 %
37 of 37 games with a box score · 21 conference · Average opponent +6.4 (+2.7 sd vs the cohort) · team +9.2 (+1.3 sd) · standardization from the Scout census
Who he is
The games with a box score in the measured season
| 2025-26 | Opponent | opp. rating | min | pts | reb | ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | @ Arizona Wildcats L 88-109 · NCAA Tournament | +16.8 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-03-22 | High Point Panthers W 94-88 · NCAA Tournament | +18.5 | 38 | 15 | 10 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-03-19 | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors W 97-78 · NCAA Tournament | +9.0 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-03-15 | Vanderbilt Commodores W 86-75 · Conference Tournament | +10.8 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-03-14 | Ole Miss Rebels W 93-90 · Conference Tournament | −0.2 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-03-14 | Oklahoma Sooners W 82-79 · Conference Tournament | +5.5 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Missouri Tigers W 88-84 | +3.8 | 39 | 10 | 6 | 4 | box score |
| 2026-03-05 | Texas Longhorns W 105-85 | +6.6 | 37 | 8 | 9 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Florida Gators L 77-111 | +15.6 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-02-26 | Texas A&M Aggies W 99-84 | +7.1 | 34 | 23 | 2 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-02-21 | Missouri Tigers W 94-86 | +3.8 | 35 | 21 | 1 | 4 | box score |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 115-117 | +8.5 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 2 | box score |
| 2026-02-15 | Auburn Tigers W 88-75 | +4.2 | 38 | 25 | 3 | 4 | box score |
| 2026-02-11 | @ LSU Tigers W 91-62 | +2.9 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ Mississippi State Bulldogs W 88-68 | −4.2 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-01-31 | Kentucky Wildcats L 77-85 | +6.2 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Oklahoma Sooners W 83-79 | +5.5 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-24 | LSU Tigers W 85-81 | +2.9 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-01-21 | Vanderbilt Commodores W 93-68 | +10.8 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Georgia Bulldogs L 76-90 | +9.6 | 26 | 12 | 8 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-01-15 | South Carolina Gamecocks W 108-74 | −1.5 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 4 | box score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Auburn Tigers L 73-95 | +4.2 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-08 | @ Ole Miss Rebels W 94-87 | −0.2 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-01-03 | Tennessee Volunteers W 86-75 | +9.3 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-12-30 | James Madison Dukes W 103-74 | +0.7 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 6 | box score |
| 2025-12-20 | Houston Cougars L 85-94 | +14.5 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-12-17 | Queens University Royals W 108-80 | +0.9 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-12-13 | Texas Tech Red Raiders W 93-86 | +7.2 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 4 | box score |
| 2025-12-06 | Fresno State Bulldogs W 82-58 | 0.0 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4 | box score |
| 2025-12-04 | Louisville Cardinals W 89-80 | +11.7 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 2 | box score |
| 2025-11-28 | Duke Blue Devils L 71-80 | +18.0 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 2 | box score |
| 2025-11-22 | Jackson State Tigers W 115-61 | −13.5 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 2 | box score |
| 2025-11-19 | Winthrop Eagles W 84-83 | +8.2 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-11-15 | Samford Bulldogs W 79-75 | +3.6 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-11-12 | Central Arkansas Bears W 93-56 | +6.1 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Michigan State Spartans L 66-69 | +10.5 | 29 | 8 | 6 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-11-04 | Southern Jaguars W 109-77 | +1.7 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | box score |
Evidence and provenance
Every figure in this file comes from one of these sources, with its scope and its sample. What is not here has not been measured.
| Source | Scope | Sample | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outside consensus | The public mock drafts we track | 1 mocks | Tankathon #26 |
| Identity | His ESPN NCAA box scores, matched with the board | NCAA Division I | 5060732 |
| Season | ESPN's NCAA box scores, game by game | NCAA 2025-26 · Arkansas Razorbacks | 37 of 37 games with a box score |
| Opponent quality | NCAA games with the opponent's strength measured (at least 10) | NCAA 2025-26 | 37 / 37 |
| Standard score (z) against the NCAA | Scout's census of NCAA players for that season | NCAA 2025-26 | standardization from the Scout census |
| SW rank | SportiveWorld's draft model, calibrated on past drafts | 2005-2021 | n=26,550 · AUC 0.897 |
| The player within his team | His NCAA box scores, with Basketball-Reference formulas | NCAA 2025-26 | 37 pj |
| The team | NCAA standings, the AP ranking and games | NCAA 2025-26 | Southeastern Conference |
| Comparables and outlook (Scout) | Scout's NBA projection | NCAA 2025-26 | 37 pj · 2026-09-13 |
| Combine | The official NBA Draft Combine measurements | NBA Draft Combine 2026 | nombre_unico_en_ventana_y_no_drafteado · 2024-2026 |
| Physical | His NCAA profile on ESPN | NCAA 2025-26 | 201 cm · 93 kg |
| Rank history | Daily snapshots of the board and the mock drafts | 2027 | 52 |
Declared limits
- · No adjustment for age or class (the historical census lacks them): bias in favour of the productive veteran.
- · Physical measurements and the combine are not in the model: they are shown as context.
- · Calibrated on the NCAA only: ACB, EuroLeague and FIBA are not scored.
- · The mocks' history starts on 2026-09-13: before that date there is none (the ingester overwrote them daily).