The SportiveWorld board, rank by rank: what holds up each evaluation and where we differ from the market
64 prospects with an SW rank · 39 with the NCAA model · 25 provisional
Everyone has a rank on the SW Big Board. With NCAA box scores and a sample, the model weighs on the rank and is read through three independent lenses (his signals alone · his environment alone · the comparables); without a model, the market prior orders and the evidence state and the confidence say so. Three independent lenses against our own place: his individual signals alone, his environment alone and the historical comparables. A lens disagrees when it lands 8 places away or more. SportiveWorld can be wrong: this is where it shows.
Tyran Stokes1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #1.
Jordan Smith Jr.1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #2.
Bruce Branch III1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #3.
Primary creator in U18 national teams 2026; production in the 100th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #4.
Caleb Holt1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #5.
Baba Oladotun1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #6.
Volume scorer in U18 national teams 2026; production in the 97th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #7.
Motiejus KrivasNCAA model #2 of 39 measured · 81% NBA career prob. · Leans on context High conviction · Rim-protecting big
Brandon McCoy Jr.Only in the mocks, no covered box score: market prior #8.
Obinna Ekezie1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #9.
Thomas HaughNCAA model #4 of 39 measured · 76% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Anthony Thompson1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #10.
Quentin Coleman1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #11.
Patrick Ngongba IINCAA model #8 of 39 measured · 69% NBA career prob. · Leans on context High conviction · Classic power forward
Cameron Williams1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #16.
Alex CondonNCAA model #3 of 39 measured · 79% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Ivan KharchenkovNCAA model #11 of 39 measured · 52% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Medium conviction · Rotation wing
JT ToppinNCAA model #1 of 39 measured · 88% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Tyler TannerNCAA model #5 of 39 measured · 75% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Rueben ChinyeluNCAA model #6 of 39 measured · 72% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Workhorse big
Jason Crowe Jr.1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #19.
Amari AllenNCAA model #14 of 39 measured · 42% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Floor-spacing big
Luigi Suigo1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #21.
Dylan Mingo1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #22.
Abdou Toure1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #23.
Miikka Muurinen1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #24.
Flory BidungaNCAA model #7 of 39 measured · 70% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rim-protecting big
David MirkovicNCAA model #12 of 39 measured · 47% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Floor-spacing big
Billy Richmond IIINCAA model #15 of 39 measured · 39% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Low conviction · Rotation wing
Tounde YessoufouNCAA model #17 of 39 measured · 36% NBA career prob. · Looks too low High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Colben Landrew1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #28.
Jeremy Fears Jr.NCAA model #10 of 39 measured · 59% NBA career prob. · Holds Low conviction
Shot blocker in U18 national teams 2025 (7 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #29.
Elliot CadeauNCAA model #9 of 39 measured · 67% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Floor general
Rotation role in EuroCup 2025; production in the 94th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #30.
JoJo TuglerNCAA model #13 of 39 measured · 47% NBA career prob. · Holds Medium conviction
Christian CollinsOnly in the mocks, no covered box score: market prior #31.
Milan MomcilovicNCAA model #18 of 39 measured · 34% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
JJ Andrews1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #33.
Trey McKenneyNCAA model #20 of 39 measured · 31% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Medium conviction · Three-point specialist
Malachi MorenoNCAA model #23 of 39 measured · 30% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rim-protecting big
Braylon MullinsNCAA model #28 of 39 measured · 23% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Alijah ArenasNCAA model #39 of 39 measured · 4% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction
Pryce SandfortNCAA model #16 of 39 measured · 37% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Sayon Keita1 NCAA games (2026-27): below the model's 10. Market prior #38.
Andrej StojakovicNCAA model #21 of 39 measured · 31% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Perimeter scorer
Juke HarrisNCAA model #22 of 39 measured · 30% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Dame SarrNCAA model #25 of 39 measured · 27% NBA career prob. · Leans on context High conviction · Rotation wing
Tomislav IvisicNCAA model #19 of 39 measured · 32% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Low conviction
Davis FogleNCAA model #33 of 39 measured · 14% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Miles ByrdNCAA model #24 of 39 measured · 29% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Floor-spacing big in U18 national teams 2025 (7 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #47.
Cayden BoozerNCAA model #27 of 39 measured · 24% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Playmaking wing
Matas VokietaitisNCAA model #26 of 39 measured · 26% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Workhorse big
Box scores in FIBA windows · U19 World Cup; league not calibrated: market prior #51.
Moustapha ThiamNCAA model #29 of 39 measured · 16% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Classic power forward
Daniel JacobsenNCAA model #30 of 39 measured · 16% NBA career prob. · Holds Low conviction
Shelton HendersonNCAA model #34 of 39 measured · 13% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Rotation wing
Paul McNeil Jr.NCAA model #35 of 39 measured · 10% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher Medium conviction · Three-point specialist
Nikolas KhameniaNCAA model #32 of 39 measured · 14% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rotation wing
Ranks 61 and beyond: outside the two projected rounds. Each with its evidence state and its confidence.
Matt AbleNCAA model #36 of 39 measured · 8% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher Medium conviction · Three-point specialist
Solo BallNCAA model #31 of 39 measured · 16% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Stefan VaaksNCAA model #38 of 39 measured · 6% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction
Neoklis AvdalasNCAA model #37 of 39 measured · 8% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Playmaking wing
Projection = grouping by SW Big Board rank: 1–5 · 6–10 · 11–14 (lottery) · 15–30 · 31–60 · 61+. Not a mock of picks.
Where we differ from the market
The biggest gaps between our board and the cited publications, with the reading of each. The gap does not say who is right: it says where to look. Gap = market rank − SW rank. Positive: SportiveWorld rates him higher than the publications.
SportiveWorld higher than the market
The NCAA model places him #1 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #1. The market has him 51 places lower (#52).
The NCAA model places him #3 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #4. The market has him 38 places lower (#41).
The NCAA model places him #9 of 39: the bet is the environment (Michigan Wolverines, opponent +6.5), not individual dominance — on his signals alone he would be #24. The market has him 49 places lower (#58).
SportiveWorld lower than the market
The NCAA model places him #28 of 39: the measured data backs it (#26 on his signals alone). The market has him 16 places higher (#12); why, we do not know: its sources publish the rank, not the reason.
The NCAA model places him #33 of 39: his individual signals back it (#28) and the comparables lens places him relatively higher on the board (#10 of 33) — a relative rank: his analogues reached the NBA 19 % of the time, the model gives him 30 %. Market: #27.
The NCAA model places him #39 of 39, but the environment drags him down: on his individual signals alone he would be #27 and the comparables see him #—. Market: #20.
How the SW rank is computed
How the SW rank is computed
The SW score is the probability that a college season like this one leads to an NBA career of at least 2,000 minutes (a full season of rotation minutes). It is not an opinion: the weights were calibrated on 26,550 NCAA seasons with a known outcome (2005-2021) and validated by training up to 2012 and measuring on the later seasons (AUC 0.897; scoring per 40 alone: 0.723).
Fifteen signals, all measured: the 12 per-40 style axes standardized within their season (the Scout census), minutes per game, opponent quality (opponents' average point differential, minute-weighted, only opponents with ≥ 10 games) and the team's own strength. Every prospect shows each signal's contribution: that is where the why, the strengths and the risks come from.
How the Big Board is ordered
Position = w · model position + (1 − w) · market position. w = 2/3 with high model confidence, 1/2 medium, 1/3 low and 0 without a model. The model position is his rank among the measured brought to the class scale; the market position, the average of the cited mocks.
Without evidence of our own, the market prior orders, with the evidence state and the confidence in plain view. Nobody leaves the board for lack of sample: lack of sample lowers the confidence. The NCAA model does not change; it is a signal within the board, not the board.
Projection = grouping by SW Big Board rank: 1–5 · 6–10 · 11–14 (lottery) · 15–30 · 31–60 · 61+. Not a mock of picks.
Average spot across 2 cited mocks (Tankathon · nbadraftroom). We never reproduce their scouting. · High: ≥ 15 games with a box score and ≥ 60% of the team's games · Medium: ≥ 15 games, partial coverage · Low: 10-14 games (below the census bar).
Declared limits
- · No adjustment for age or class (the historical census lacks them): bias in favour of the productive veteran.
- · Physical measurements and the combine are not in the model: they are shown as context.
- · Calibrated on the NCAA only: ACB, EuroLeague and FIBA are not scored.
- · The mocks' history starts on 2026-09-13: before that date there is none (the ingester overwrote them daily).
2026-09-13 · 2026-11-04 17:52 UTC