The SportiveWorld board, rank by rank: what holds up each evaluation and where we differ from the market
64 prospects with an SW rank · 39 with the NCAA model · 25 provisional
Everyone has a rank on the SW Big Board. With NCAA box scores and a sample, the model weighs on the rank and is read through three independent lenses (his signals alone · his environment alone · the comparables); without a model, the market prior orders and the evidence state and the confidence say so. Three independent lenses against our own place: his individual signals alone, his environment alone and the historical comparables. A lens disagrees when it lands 8 places away or more. SportiveWorld can be wrong: this is where it shows.
Tyran Stokes2.01 m · joins Kansas in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #1.
Jordan Smith Jr.1.88 m · joins Arkansas in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #2.
Bruce Branch2.01 m · joins BYU in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #3.
Caleb Holt1.96 m · joins Arizona in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #4.
Primary creator in U18 national teams 2026; production in the 100th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #5.
Brandon McCoy Jr.Joins Michigan in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #6.
Thomas HaughNCAA model #4 of 39 measured · 76% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Motiejus KrivasNCAA model #2 of 39 measured · 81% NBA career prob. · Leans on context High conviction · Rim-protecting big
Cameron Williams2.11 m · joins Duke in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #8.
Volume scorer in U18 national teams 2026; production in the 97th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #9.
Anthony Thompson2.03 m · joins Ohio State in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #11.
Patrick Ngongba IINCAA model #8 of 39 measured · 69% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Classic power forward
Shot blocker in U18 national teams 2025 (6 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #14.
Luigi SuigoShot blocker in U18 national teams 2024 (7 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #15.
Alex CondonNCAA model #3 of 39 measured · 79% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Ivan KharchenkovNCAA model #11 of 39 measured · 52% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Low conviction · Rotation wing
Rueben ChinyeluNCAA model #6 of 39 measured · 72% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Workhorse big
Dylan Mingo1.96 m · joins Baylor in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #18.
JT ToppinNCAA model #1 of 39 measured · 88% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Perimeter scorer
Tyler TannerNCAA model #5 of 39 measured · 75% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Jason Crowe Jr.Joins Missouri in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #19.
Amari AllenNCAA model #14 of 39 measured · 42% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Floor-spacing big
Baba Oladotun2.08 m · joins Maryland in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #20.
Miikka MuurinenBox scores in FIBA windows · EuroLeague · EuroBasket; league not calibrated: market prior #21.
Sayon KeitaBox scores in EuroLeague · ACB · Liga Endesa; league not calibrated: market prior #22.
Flory BidungaNCAA model #7 of 39 measured · 70% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rim-protecting big
Christian Collins2.03 m · joins USC in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #25.
Quentin ColemanJoins Illinois in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #26.
David MirkovicNCAA model #12 of 39 measured · 47% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Floor-spacing big
Tounde YessoufouNCAA model #17 of 39 measured · 36% NBA career prob. · Looks too low High conviction · Perimeter scorer
JJ AndrewsJoins Arkansas in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #28.
Billy Richmond IIINCAA model #15 of 39 measured · 39% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens lower Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Shot blocker in U18 national teams 2025 (7 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #29.
JoJo TuglerNCAA model #13 of 39 measured · 47% NBA career prob. · Holds Medium conviction
Jeremy Fears Jr.NCAA model #10 of 39 measured · 59% NBA career prob. · Holds Low conviction
Rotation role in EuroCup 2025; production in the 94th percentile for his age. League not calibrated: market prior #30.
Elliot CadeauNCAA model #9 of 39 measured · 67% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Floor general
Milan MomcilovicNCAA model #18 of 39 measured · 34% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Abdou Toure1.98 m · joins Arkansas in 2026-27; no NCAA box score: market prior #31.
Braylon MullinsNCAA model #28 of 39 measured · 23% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Malachi MorenoNCAA model #22 of 39 measured · 30% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rim-protecting big
Trey McKenneyNCAA model #19 of 39 measured · 31% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Medium conviction · Three-point specialist
Mor Massamba DiopBox scores in ACB · Liga Endesa · EuroCup; league not calibrated: market prior #36.
Andrej StojakovicNCAA model #20 of 39 measured · 31% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Perimeter scorer
Alijah ArenasNCAA model #39 of 39 measured · 4% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction
Pryce SandfortNCAA model #16 of 39 measured · 37% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Juke HarrisNCAA model #21 of 39 measured · 30% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Foul-drawing scorer
Dame SarrNCAA model #24 of 39 measured · 27% NBA career prob. · Looks too high Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Miles ByrdNCAA model #23 of 39 measured · 29% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Matas VokietaitisNCAA model #25 of 39 measured · 26% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Low conviction · Workhorse big
Moustapha ThiamNCAA model #30 of 39 measured · 16% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Classic power forward
Davis FogleNCAA model #33 of 39 measured · 14% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher Medium conviction · Perimeter scorer
Floor-spacing big in U18 national teams 2025 (7 games, short sample). League not calibrated: market prior #49.
Coen CarrNCAA model #26 of 39 measured · 25% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rotation wing
Cayden BoozerNCAA model #27 of 39 measured · 24% NBA career prob. · Leans on context Medium conviction · Playmaking wing
Shelton HendersonNCAA model #34 of 39 measured · 13% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Box scores in FIBA windows; league not calibrated: market prior #52.
Nikolas KhameniaNCAA model #32 of 39 measured · 14% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Rotation wing
Matt AbleNCAA model #36 of 39 measured · 8% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher Medium conviction · Three-point specialist
Solo BallNCAA model #31 of 39 measured · 16% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Ranks 61 and beyond: outside the two projected rounds. Each with its evidence state and its confidence.
Karter KnoxNCAA model #29 of 39 measured · 18% NBA career prob. · Holds Medium conviction · Classic power forward
Paul McNeil Jr.NCAA model #35 of 39 measured · 10% NBA career prob. · Holds High conviction · Three-point specialist
Neoklis AvdalasNCAA model #37 of 39 measured · 8% NBA career prob. · Looks too low Medium conviction · Playmaking wing
Xavier BookerNCAA model #38 of 39 measured · 6% NBA career prob. · Holds; comparables lens higher Medium conviction · Rotation wing
Projection = grouping by SW Big Board rank: 1–5 · 6–10 · 11–14 (lottery) · 15–30 · 31–60 · 61+. Not a mock of picks.
Where we differ from the market
The biggest gaps between our board and the cited publications, with the reading of each. The gap does not say who is right: it says where to look. Gap = market rank − SW rank. Positive: SportiveWorld rates him higher than the publications.
SportiveWorld higher than the market
The NCAA model places him #1 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #1. The market has him 50 places lower (#51).
The NCAA model places him #3 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #4. The market has him 39 places lower (#42).
The NCAA model places him #9 of 39: the bet is the environment (Michigan Wolverines, opponent +6.5), not individual dominance — on his signals alone he would be #23. The market has him 52 places lower (#61).
SportiveWorld lower than the market
The NCAA model places him #28 of 39: the measured data backs it (#25 on his signals alone). The market has him 21 places higher (#7); why, we do not know: its sources publish the rank, not the reason.
The NCAA model places him #39 of 39, but the environment drags him down: on his individual signals alone he would be #26 and the comparables see him #—. Market: #24.
The NCAA model places him #33 of 39: his individual signals back it (#27) and the comparables lens places him relatively higher on the board (#10 of 36) — a relative rank: his analogues reached the NBA 19 % of the time, the model gives him 30 %. Market: #34.
How the SW rank is computed
How the SW rank is computed
The SW score is the probability that a college season like this one leads to an NBA career of at least 2,000 minutes (a full season of rotation minutes). It is not an opinion: the weights were calibrated on 26,550 NCAA seasons with a known outcome (2005-2021) and validated by training up to 2012 and measuring on the later seasons (AUC 0.897; scoring per 40 alone: 0.723).
Fifteen signals, all measured: the 12 per-40 style axes standardized within their season (the Scout census), minutes per game, opponent quality (opponents' average point differential, minute-weighted, only opponents with ≥ 10 games) and the team's own strength. Every prospect shows each signal's contribution: that is where the why, the strengths and the risks come from.
How the Big Board is ordered
Position = w · model position + (1 − w) · market position. w = 2/3 with high model confidence, 1/2 medium, 1/3 low and 0 without a model. The model position is his rank among the measured brought to the class scale; the market position, the average of the cited mocks.
Without evidence of our own, the market prior orders, with the evidence state and the confidence in plain view. Nobody leaves the board for lack of sample: lack of sample lowers the confidence. The NCAA model does not change; it is a signal within the board, not the board.
Projection = grouping by SW Big Board rank: 1–5 · 6–10 · 11–14 (lottery) · 15–30 · 31–60 · 61+. Not a mock of picks.
Average spot across 2 cited mocks (Tankathon · nbadraftroom). We never reproduce their scouting. · High: ≥ 15 games with a box score and ≥ 60% of the team's games · Medium: ≥ 15 games, partial coverage · Low: 10-14 games (below the census bar).
Declared limits
- · No adjustment for age or class (the historical census lacks them): bias in favour of the productive veteran.
- · Physical measurements and the combine are not in the model: they are shown as context.
- · Calibrated on the NCAA only: ACB, EuroLeague and FIBA are not scored.
- · The mocks' history starts on 2026-09-13: before that date there is none (the ingester overwrote them daily).
2026-09-13 · 2026-09-20 14:04 UTC