JoJo Tugler
Houston Cougars · NCAA Division I · Power forward · Junior · 2.03 m
SportiveWorld evaluation
Main reading
Measured production against measured opponents (37 games, 2025-26); on his signals alone, #15 of 39.
Why he is here
The NCAA model places him #13 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #15. The market has him 32 places lower (#45).
Measured over 37 games with a box score · 2025-26 · Houston Cougars
- fact47 % probability of an NBA career (≥ 2,000 min). On the model's scale: context +3.55 · player +1.23. With average opponent and team, the same profile would give 2.5 %; on the environment alone, 21 %.
- factMeasured environment: Houston Cougars, strength +14.5 (+2.2 sd) · average opponent +4.5 (+1.8 sd) — environment #15 of 39 ranked
- factHis individual signal adding the most: Blocks per 40 2.5 (+2.5 sd · contribution +0.95). On his individual signals alone he would be #15 of 39.
interpretationThe position holds on what is measured: the rank does not change zone when the environment is removed or the comparables are consulted. SportiveWorld does not yet measure age, physique or projection; those dimensions could explain part of the gap, but the consensus sources do not publish the reason for their rank here.
Where the rank comes from: how much his individual signals contribute and how much his environment (model scale). Below, the probability with an average opponent and team, and the probability on the environment alone.
Potential
Categorical reading of the ceiling the accredited evidence supports. Not a score: it starts from the NCAA model (if any) or from the market prior and only moves one level with our own evidence, declared piece by piece.
factStarts from the NCAA model: 47% probability of an NBA career (#13 of 39 measured). → High
- ◎The market (#45) does not disagree with the model enough to move the reading.
- ◎On his individual signals alone he would be #15 of 39: consistent with his model #13.
Evidence moves the reading one level at most, in the direction the sum of the evidence pushes. · Confidence: NCAA season with ≥ 15 games with a box score and ≥ 60% of the team's games.
Production
2025-26 · Houston Cougars · 8.4p · 5.3r · 1.3a · 23.5 min · 37 of 37 games with a box score · TS 60.7 %
By opponent level ▾
Per 40 minutes, over the games with a box score. Small samples within one season: read as a hint, not a verdict.
| pj | W-L | min | pts/40 | reb/40 | ast/40 | tov/40 | TS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37 | — | 23.5 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 60.7 % |
| Opponents +8 or better | 8 | 3-5 | 25.8 | 14.4 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 67.6 % |
| Other opponents | 29 | 27-2 | 22.9 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 58.8 % |
| Postseason | 6 | 4-2 | 26.3 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 54.2 % |
| Away / neutral | 12 | 8-4 | 24.3 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 62.1 % |
Strengths
Signals that add the most
- ▲Trajectory: +5.0 pts/40 vs 2023-24
What travels: holds up against strong opponents
—
An individual signal is transferable if it holds against opponents rated +8 or better (≥ 90% of its season value). What evaporates as the level rises is stated.
Risks and what would change our mind
Signals that subtract
- ▼Junior: the model does not adjust for age or class; the same production from a freshman projects higher
Would make us move him down
- ▼Age: we do not adjust for it (Junior); the same production from a freshman projects higher
- ▼More sources consolidating the consensus #45
Would make us move him up
- ▲More scoring per 40 min: today 14.4 (−0.2 sd)
- ▲Combine measurements (wingspan, reach, athleticism): we do not have them today
- ▲A second source placing him nearby: today the consensus is a single mock
What to watch until the Draft
- →The 2026-27 season: every new box score is measured and can move the rank
- →The 2027 Combine (May): wingspan, reach and athleticism we do not have today
- →The mocks: captured daily; today the consensus is 1 source(s)
- →His minutes (23.5 per game): a drop would show in the box score before any news
Context
Facts derived from the box score (Basketball-Reference formulas over the games he played) and the standings. No film or tracking data.
Context
Facts derived from the box score (Basketball-Reference formulas over the games he played) and the standings. No film or tracking data.
Role on his team
- ·Started 36 of 37 games (97%) · 23.5 min (59% of the available minutes)
- ·Usage 18.3% of his team's possessions while on the floor · 19% of its points
- ·Creation: assists 10.4% of his teammates' baskets while on the floor · 1.00 assists per turnover · 15.5% of his possessions end in a turnover
- ·Team record with him on the floor: 30-7 · estimated pace 65.8 possessions per 40 min
His team and schedule
- ·Houston Cougars · Big 12 Conference · 26-5 in the standings · 14-4 in conference
- ·Latest poll: Coaches Poll, week 21, #6 (30-7)
- ·Postseason with a box score: 6 games, 3 in the NCAA Tournament (up to Sweet 16)
- ·Team strength +14.5 (+2.2 sd in the cohort) · average opponent +4.5 (+1.8 sd): the model's two context signals
Development
Development
Versus 2023-24: +5.0 pts/40 · +6.0 % TS · +1.5 ast/40 · −1.3 reb/40 · +7.5 min · SW score +32 pp · 2024-25 skipped: 4 games with a box score
Combine
Combine
No Combine measurements: he does not appear in the 2024-2026 combines (or does not match uniquely by name). The physique above is what his programme lists, not a measurement.
Market vs SportiveWorld
Outside reference: the rank given by the cited publications. We know the rank; they do not publish the why.
factExternal consensus #45 (Tankathon #39; 1 source(s)). What we know: the rank. What we do NOT know: why they place him there — the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Does our position hold? · The three lenses
- ◎On his individual signals alone he would be #15 of 39: the same zone as SW #13
- ◎On his environment alone (opponent and team) he would be #15 of 39, with 21 %
- ◎No Scout historical comparables for this season: that lens does not apply
Three independent lenses against our own place: his individual signals alone, his environment alone and the historical comparables. A lens disagrees when it lands 8 places away or more. SportiveWorld can be wrong: this is where it shows.
Conviction
- ✓Sample: 37 of 37 games with a box score (100%)
- ✓Standardised by the Scout census (own season profile)
- ✗The consensus is a SINGLE source (1): it is not a market
- ✓His individual signals alone leave him in the same zone (#15 versus SW #13)
- ✗No historical comparables for this season
- ✓Trajectory in favour: +32 pp of probability versus 2023-24
Why this gap exists ▾
On our side the gap decomposes exactly: which dimensions push the rank up and which hold it back. On the consensus side we only see the rank: its sources publish rankings, not reasons, so why they place him there is UNKNOWN. All we can say is what our model does NOT measure.
factSportiveWorld #13 · consensus #45: 32 places higher. Pushing up: Team strength · Opponent quality · Box-score defence · Production. Holding back: Minutes. Consensus sources: 1.
unknownWe know the consensus rank (#45: Tankathon #39). We do not know why they place him there: the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Pushes the rank up
Holds the rank back
What our model does NOT measure (it could explain part of the gap; the consensus does not publish its reasons)
- ◇Age and class (Junior): the model does not adjust for them and favours the productive veteran
- ◇Physique and athleticism: no Combine measurements; only the listed height
- ◇Projection, film and future role: not in the box score
No appreciable weight · Creation −0.08 · Efficiency +0.13 · Outside shooting −0.06
Rank history ▾
7 captures, from 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-20
- ·2026-09-15: SW #— → #13 · consensus #45 → #45 · accredited new data: games with a box score — → 37
Movement in the mocks
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
All the model's signals
Calibrated probability of an NBA career of ≥ 2,000 minutes, given this season = 47.0 % · P(playing in the NBA) = 61.4 %
37 of 37 games with a box score · 21 conference · Average opponent +4.5 (+1.8 sd vs the cohort) · team +14.5 (+2.2 sd) · standardization from the Scout census
Who he is
The games with a box score in the measured season
| 2025-26 | Opponent | opp. rating | min | pts | reb | ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Illinois Fighting Illini L 55-65 · NCAA Tournament | +14.5 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 5 | box score |
| 2026-03-21 | Texas A&M Aggies W 88-57 · NCAA Tournament | +7.1 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 2 | box score |
| 2026-03-20 | Idaho Vandals W 78-47 · NCAA Tournament | +5.1 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Arizona Wildcats L 74-79 · Conference Tournament | +16.8 | 35 | 20 | 10 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-03-14 | Kansas Jayhawks W 69-47 · Conference Tournament | +6.1 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-03-12 | BYU Cougars W 73-66 · Conference Tournament | +8.1 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 4 | box score |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Oklahoma State Cowboys W 82-75 | +0.7 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-03-05 | Baylor Bears W 77-64 | +5.3 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-02-28 | Colorado Buffaloes W 102-62 | +0.4 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Kansas Jayhawks L 56-69 | +6.1 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-02-21 | Arizona Wildcats L 66-73 | +16.8 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-02-17 | @ Iowa State Cyclones L 67-70 | +16.4 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-02-14 | Kansas State Wildcats W 78-64 | −2.3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Utah Utes W 66-52 | −4.7 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-02-08 | @ BYU Cougars W 77-66 | +8.1 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-02-05 | UCF Knights W 79-55 | +2.3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | box score |
| 2026-01-31 | Cincinnati Bearcats W 76-54 | +5.5 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ TCU Horned Frogs W 79-70 | +5.3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Texas Tech Red Raiders L 86-90 | +7.2 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-01-18 | Arizona State Sun Devils W 103-73 | −2.0 | 24 | 12 | 7 | 3 | box score |
| 2026-01-14 | West Virginia Mountaineers W 77-48 | +4.9 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 1 | box score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Baylor Bears W 77-55 | +5.3 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-07 | Texas Tech Red Raiders W 69-65 | +7.2 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 0 | box score |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Cincinnati Bearcats W 67-60 | +5.5 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-12-30 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders W 69-60 | +2.7 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Arkansas Razorbacks W 94-85 | +9.2 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-12-13 | New Orleans Privateers W 99-57 | −3.2 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-12-11 | Jackson State Tigers W 80-38 | −13.5 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-12-07 | Florida State Seminoles W 82-67 | +2.4 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-11-26 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 66-56 | −0.9 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-11-25 | Tennessee Volunteers L 73-76 | +9.3 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 5 | box score |
| 2025-11-24 | Syracuse Orange W 78-74 | +0.8 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-11-21 | Rider Broncs W 91-45 | −12.6 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 2 | box score |
| 2025-11-16 | @ Auburn Tigers W 73-72 | +4.2 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 2 | box score |
| 2025-11-13 | Oakland Golden Grizzlies W 78-45 | +0.9 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | box score |
| 2025-11-08 | Towson Tigers W 65-48 | +3.1 | 29 | 15 | 7 | 0 | box score |
| 2025-11-04 | Lehigh Mountain Hawks W 75-57 | −1.1 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 3 | box score |
Evidence and provenance
Every figure in this file comes from one of these sources, with its scope and its sample. What is not here has not been measured.
| Owner | Scope | Sample | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outside consensus | draft_board_mock · lib/bigboard.ts | 1 mocks | Tankathon #39 |
| Identity | draft_board_prospect.espn_athlete_id · scripts/cross_bigboard_stats.mjs | NCAA Division I | 5060700 |
| Season | ncaa_player_box + ncaa_game · lib/scout/ejes.mjs | NCAA 2025-26 · Houston Cougars | 37 of 37 games with a box score |
| Opponent quality | lib/draft/sql_rival.mjs (ncaa_game, ≥10 pj) | NCAA 2025-26 | 37 / 37 |
| z | ncaa_season_profile (scripts/scout_perfil_ncaa.mjs) | NCAA 2025-26 | standardization from the Scout census |
| SW rank | lib/draft/modelo.ts · lib/draft/calibracion.json | 2005-2021 | n=26,550 · AUC 0.897 |
| The player within his team | ncaa_player_box (rolDe · fórmulas B-R) | NCAA 2025-26 | 37 pj |
| The team | ncaa_standings · ncaa_ranking · ncaa_game | NCAA 2025-26 | Big 12 Conference |
| Physical | ncaa_player (ESPN, 2026) | NCAA 2025-26 | 203 cm · 104 kg |
| Rank history | draft_sw_board_snapshot · draft_board_mock_snapshot (mig 0329) | 2027 | 7 |
Declared limits
- · No adjustment for age or class (the historical census lacks them): bias in favour of the productive veteran.
- · Physical measurements and the combine are not in the model: they are shown as context.
- · Calibrated on the NCAA only: ACB, EuroLeague and FIBA are not scored.
- · The mocks' history starts on 2026-09-13: before that date there is none (the ingester overwrote them daily).