FORECAST · WNBA
What Forecast expects
Each game's probability, explained in basketball terms: why, what could flip it, what we don't know and how the model has performed.
Preview saved before the gameAs of 31 Aug49 games with a forecast
Previews saved before tip-off and compared with the result.
31 AugCON @ DALFavourite · DAL 78%DAL 97 – CON 71Correct30 AugGS @ PORFavourite · GS 76%POR 69 – GS 86Correct30 AugLA @ SEAFavourite · LA 59%SEA 74 – LA 90Correct30 AugMIN @ ATLFavourite · MIN 64%ATL 89 – MIN 81Missed30 AugTOR @ PHXFavourite · PHX 64%PHX 101 – TOR 69Correct29 AugCHI @ NYFavourite · NY 74%NY 85 – CHI 66Correct29 AugTOR @ LVFavourite · LV 85%LV 93 – TOR 73Correct29 AugWSH @ LAFavourite · WSH 74%LA 88 – WSH 82Missed28 AugPOR @ ATLFavourite · ATL 79%ATL 83 – POR 101Missed28 AugCON @ INDFavourite · IND 84%IND 111 – CON 91Correct28 AugWSH @ PHXFavourite · WSH 70%PHX 73 – WSH 80Correct28 AugGS @ NYFavourite · GS 55%NY 60 – GS 79Correct27 AugTOR @ SEAFavourite · TOR 55%SEA 90 – TOR 78Missed26 AugGS @ CONFavourite · GS 80%CON 64 – GS 89Correct26 AugWSH @ PHXFavourite · WSH 67%PHX 84 – WSH 94Correct26 AugPOR @ DALFavourite · DAL 70%DAL 96 – POR 78Correct25 AugCHI @ CONFavourite · CHI 59%CON 87 – CHI 81Missed25 AugATL @ LAFavourite · ATL 73%LA 71 – ATL 78Correct25 AugGS @ MINFavourite · MIN 69%MIN 66 – GS 80Missed23 AugIND @ CHIFavourite · IND 66%CHI 90 – IND 113Correct23 AugLV @ TORFavourite · LV 76%TOR 78 – LV 88Correct23 AugWSH @ PORFavourite · WSH 65%POR 100 – WSH 105Correct23 AugSEA @ DALFavourite · DAL 81%DAL 92 – SEA 70Correct23 AugATL @ PHXFavourite · ATL 67%PHX 89 – ATL 99Correct23 AugCON @ LAFavourite · LA 57%LA 77 – CON 68Correct22 AugIND @ NYFavourite · IND 53%NY 109 – IND 102Missed22 AugPOR @ TORFavourite · POR 60%TOR 82 – POR 79Missed21 AugGS @ CHIFavourite · GS 74%CHI 73 – GS 70Missed21 AugMIN @ WSHFavourite · MIN 65%WSH 84 – MIN 94Correct21 AugCON @ LVFavourite · LV 81%LV 101 – CON 78Correct21 AugATL @ LAFavourite · ATL 71%LA 88 – ATL 124Correct19 AugTOR @ WSHFavourite · WSH 81%WSH 93 – TOR 82Correct
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD
Measured over 49 games: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172.
On those same games the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.