What if…?
Without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder were 7.3 points per game worse
68 games with him · 12 without, in 2025-26
-7.3
points per game
The question
What would have changed if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had not played?
The evidence
Without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder were 7.3 points per game worse
The fact
What actually happened, game by game, in 2025-26. None of this is an estimate.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the box score
+13.18 points per game
68 games · 56-12 · 120.1 – 106.9
Without him
+5.83 points per game
12 games · 8-4 · 115.2 – 109.3
The assumptions
What we decided in order to answer. If an assumption does not hold for you, neither does the answer.
- That the 12 games without him represent a whole season without him.
- That opponent quality is spread evenly across both groups. We have not controlled for it.
- That other absences do not systematically coincide with his.
The estimated result
Arithmetic on the two figures above, nothing else: the per-game difference carried over a 82-game season.
- points of margin per game-7.35
- Across 82 games that is -603 points of accumulated margin.
FactDerivedAssumption
What this does NOT prove
- This does NOT say he is the cause. A team without its best player also changes rotation, opponent and schedule at the same time.
- It rests on 12 games without him. At that sample size, a couple of odd games move the number.
- It is not a forecast for next season: it is what happened in the one already played.
From here
Contract sheet
Source
2026-04-08
Model input
not stated
Computation
not stated
This answer
2026-09-23
Where this comes from