SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Oklahoma City Thunder

Updated · 7 Nov

Oklahoma City drops from 64 to 57 wins.

57.0projected wins47–67forecast interval64wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the player who weighs most in this projection: +8.5 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander35.975.02,676
Ajay Mitchell25.770.21,788
Isaiah Hartenstein24.168.61,642
Chet Holmgren30.043.51,297
Jared McCain18.769.41,289
Jaylin Williams21.360.71,283
Aday Mara18.264.61,166
Bennett Stirtz15.864.61,015
Kenrich Williams14.667.1975
Alex Caruso17.652.2914
Micah Peavy12.450.0614
Thomas Sorber15.638.3596
Cason Wallace25.523.0582
Josh Dix12.945.3578
Jalen Williams27.819.9551
Nikola Topic15.028.2419
Brooks Barnhizer8.348.7404
Dalen Terry12.928.4364
Allocated minutes
18,153
Not assigned to players
1,527
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander100.0 %75.0History and team context
Ajay Mitchell100.0 %70.2History and team context
Isaiah Hartenstein100.0 %68.6History and team context
Chet Holmgren100.0 %43.5History and team context
Jared McCain100.0 %69.4History and team context
Jaylin Williams100.0 %60.7History and team context
Aday Mara100.0 %64.6Historical average by draft band
Bennett Stirtz100.0 %64.6Historical average by draft band
Kenrich Williams100.0 %67.1History and team context
Alex Caruso100.0 %52.2History and team context
Micah Peavy100.0 %50.0History and team context
Thomas Sorber52.5 %73.0Historical average by draft band
Cason Wallace100.0 %23.0History and team context
Josh Dix100.0 %45.3History and team context
Jalen Williams100.0 %19.9History and team context
Nikola Topic48.9 %57.6History and team context
Brooks Barnhizer100.0 %48.7History and team context
Dalen Terry100.0 %28.4History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 61.1 to 57.0 wins.

51.066.057.014 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug61.1 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.31 · trigger not stated61.4 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change61.4 wins
  • 24 Aug+0.38 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 26 Aug+0.03 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.37 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 28 Aug-0.18 · roster change61.3 wins
  • 29 Aug+0.01 · roster change61.3 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.04 · roster change61.3 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.52 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 1 Sept-0.30 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 4 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 9 Sept+0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 10 Sept-0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.02 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 24 Sept0.00 · trigger not stated61.5 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.03 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change61.5 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.17 · roster change61.7 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.05 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 1 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.14 · roster change61.9 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.09 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 5 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 8 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.01 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change61.8 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated61.8 wins
  • 14 Oct-0.09 · roster change61.7 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.01 · roster change61.7 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change61.7 wins
  • 17 Oct-0.10 · roster change61.6 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.06 · roster change61.6 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.28 · roster change61.3 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.07 · roster change61.2 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change61.2 wins
  • 22 Oct+2.26 · roster change63.5 wins
  • 23 Oct-0.44 · roster change63.0 wins
  • 24 Oct+1.20 · roster change64.2 wins
  • 25 Oct-0.27 · roster change64.0 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.01 · roster change64.0 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.69 · roster change63.3 wins
  • 28 Oct-0.60 · roster change62.7 wins
  • 29 Oct-0.22 · roster change62.5 wins
  • 30 Oct-5.71 · roster change56.8 wins
  • 31 Oct+0.06 · roster change56.8 wins
  • 1 Nov-0.82 · roster change56.0 wins
  • 2 Nov-2.96 · roster change53.0 wins
  • 3 Nov-0.88 · roster change52.2 wins
  • 4 Nov+3.24 · roster change55.4 wins
  • 5 Nov-1.52 · roster change53.9 wins
  • 6 Nov+0.30 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 7 Nov+2.86 · roster change57.0 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Oklahoma City would win about 57 games; the model gives it a margin of 47 to 67 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Oklahoma City Thunder game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 47–67. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 47 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 67 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Oklahoma City Thunder win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Oklahoma City Thunder: 57.0 projected wins in 2026-27

57.0 winscompared against: 64 wins (-6.96 · -11 %) · Oklahoma City Thunder in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

57.0 winscompared against: 61.1 wins (-4.08 · -7 %) · Oklahoma City Thunder, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season