What if…?
Without Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Memphis Grizzlies were 4.1 points per game better
52 games with him · 27 without, in 2025-26
4.1
points per game
The question
What would have changed if Olivier-Maxence Prosper had not played?
The evidence
Without Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Memphis Grizzlies were 4.1 points per game better
The fact
What actually happened, game by game, in 2025-26. None of this is an estimate.
With Olivier-Maxence Prosper in the box score
-6.46 points per game
52 games · 15-37 · 115.0 – 121.5
Without him
-2.33 points per game
27 games · 10-17 · 114.8 – 117.1
The assumptions
What we decided in order to answer. If an assumption does not hold for you, neither does the answer.
- That the 27 games without him represent a whole season without him.
- That opponent quality is spread evenly across both groups. We have not controlled for it.
- That other absences do not systematically coincide with his.
The estimated result
Arithmetic on the two figures above, nothing else: the per-game difference carried over a 82-game season.
- points of margin per game+4.13
- Across 82 games that is +339 points of accumulated margin.
FactDerivedAssumption
What this does not prove
- This does not say he is the cause. A team without its best player also changes rotation, opponent and schedule at the same time.
- It rests on 27 games without him. At that sample size, a couple of odd games move the number.
- It is not a forecast for next season: it is what happened in the one already played.
From here
Where it comes from
Source
2026-04-06
Model input
not stated
Computation
not stated
This answer
2026-10-14
Where this comes from