Forecast NBA 2026-27Memphis Grizzlies
● Updated · 7 Nov
Memphis rises from 25 to 39 wins.
Jaylen Wells
Cam Spencer is the player who weighs most in this projection: +2.1 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | 23.4 | 75.0 | 1,745 |
| Jerami Grant | 23.8 | 69.1 | 1,630 |
| Cameron Boozer | 25.0 | 64.6 | 1,603 |
| Cedric Coward | 23.7 | 67.9 | 1,598 |
| Cam Spencer | 21.8 | 71.0 | 1,537 |
| GG Jackson | 19.4 | 63.5 | 1,223 |
| Isaiah Stewart | 19.9 | 61.1 | 1,208 |
| Zach Edey | 17.3 | 59.3 | 1,017 |
| Kris Murray | 18.1 | 56.2 | 1,010 |
| Ty Jerome | 16.1 | 57.5 | 917 |
| Quinten Post | 13.4 | 59.8 | 795 |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 16.0 | 43.7 | 696 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 15.5 | 43.7 | 674 |
| Taylor Hendricks | 15.0 | 42.3 | 632 |
| Javon Small | 17.8 | 32.5 | 575 |
| Jahmai Mashack | 15.1 | 30.6 | 458 |
| Karim Lopez | 12.3 | 35.6 | 434 |
| Carson Cooper | 11.1 | 25.9 | 284 |
| Richie Saunders | 11.7 | 10.0 | 117 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,153
- Not assigned to players
- 1,527
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | 100.0 % | 75.0 | History and team context |
| Jerami Grant | 100.0 % | 69.1 | History and team context |
| Cameron Boozer | 100.0 % | 64.6 | Historical average by draft band |
| Cedric Coward | 100.0 % | 67.9 | History and team context |
| Cam Spencer | 100.0 % | 71.0 | History and team context |
| GG Jackson | 100.0 % | 63.5 | History and team context |
| Isaiah Stewart | 100.0 % | 61.1 | History and team context |
| Zach Edey | 100.0 % | 59.3 | History before the return |
| Kris Murray | 100.0 % | 56.2 | History and team context |
| Ty Jerome | 100.0 % | 57.5 | History before the return |
| Quinten Post | 100.0 % | 59.8 | History and team context |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 100.0 % | 43.7 | History before the return |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 100.0 % | 43.7 | History and team context |
| Taylor Hendricks | 100.0 % | 42.3 | History and team context |
| Javon Small | 100.0 % | 32.5 | History and team context |
| Jahmai Mashack | 100.0 % | 30.6 | History and team context |
| Karim Lopez | 100.0 % | 35.6 | Historical average by draft band |
| Carson Cooper | 100.0 % | 25.9 | History and team context |
| Richie Saunders | 50.4 % | 19.8 | Historical average by draft band |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 28.8 to 38.9 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug28.8 wins
- 21 Aug-0.76 · trigger not stated28.0 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change28.0 wins
- 24 Aug+9.81 · roster change37.8 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change37.8 wins
- 26 Aug+0.03 · roster change37.8 wins
- 27 Aug-0.41 · roster change37.4 wins
- 28 Aug-2.96 · roster change34.5 wins
- 29 Aug0.00 · roster change34.5 wins
- 30 Aug-0.42 · roster change34.0 wins
- 31 Aug+3.58 · roster change37.6 wins
- 1 Sept-9.66 · roster change28.0 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change28.0 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change28.0 wins
- 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change28.0 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change28.0 wins
- 8 Sept-0.90 · roster change27.1 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change27.1 wins
- 10 Sept0.00 · roster change27.1 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change27.1 wins
- 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change27.1 wins
- 14 Sept+0.23 · roster change27.3 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change27.3 wins
- 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change27.3 wins
- 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change27.3 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change27.3 wins
- 19 Sept0.00 · roster change27.3 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change27.3 wins
- 24 Sept-0.01 · trigger not stated27.3 wins
- 25 Sept+0.05 · roster change27.4 wins
- 26 Sept+0.03 · roster change27.4 wins
- 27 Sept+0.39 · roster change27.8 wins
- 28 Sept+0.03 · roster change27.8 wins
- 29 Sept+0.28 · roster change28.1 wins
- 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change28.1 wins
- 1 Oct+1.66 · roster change29.8 wins
- 2 Oct+0.14 · roster change29.9 wins
- 3 Oct-0.11 · roster change29.8 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change29.8 wins
- 5 Oct-1.66 · roster change28.1 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change28.1 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change28.1 wins
- 8 Oct+0.58 · roster change28.7 wins
- 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change28.7 wins
- 11 Oct+0.01 · roster change28.7 wins
- 12 Oct0.00 · roster change28.7 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated28.7 wins
- 14 Oct-0.11 · roster change28.6 wins
- 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change28.6 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change28.6 wins
- 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change28.6 wins
- 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change28.5 wins
- 19 Oct-0.35 · roster change28.2 wins
- 20 Oct+1.95 · roster change30.1 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change30.1 wins
- 22 Oct+0.04 · roster change30.2 wins
- 23 Oct+4.47 · roster change34.6 wins
- 24 Oct0.00 · roster change34.6 wins
- 25 Oct+1.64 · roster change36.3 wins
- 26 Oct-0.05 · roster change36.2 wins
- 27 Oct+1.51 · roster change37.8 wins
- 28 Oct+2.45 · roster change40.2 wins
- 29 Oct+0.01 · roster change40.2 wins
- 30 Oct0.00 · roster change40.2 wins
- 31 Oct+4.70 · roster change44.9 wins
- 1 Nov+0.17 · roster change45.1 wins
- 2 Nov+2.00 · roster change47.1 wins
- 3 Nov-0.56 · roster change46.5 wins
- 4 Nov-1.36 · roster change45.2 wins
- 5 Nov-0.54 · roster change44.6 wins
- 6 Nov-1.39 · roster change43.2 wins
- 7 Nov-4.33 · roster change38.9 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
Memphis would win about 39 games; the model gives it a margin of 28 to 49 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 28–49. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 28 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 49 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will Memphis Grizzlies win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
Memphis Grizzlies: 38.9 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season