Jeremy Fears Jr.
Michigan State Spartans · NCAA Division I · Point guard · Sophomore · 1.88 m
SportiveWorld evaluation
Main reading
Measured production against measured opponents (35 games, 2025-26); on his signals alone, #8 of 39.
Why he is here
The NCAA model places him #10 of 39: measured production against measured opponents, and his individual signals alone leave him #8. The market has him 46 places lower (#56).
Measured over 35 games with a box score · 2025-26 · Michigan State Spartans
- fact59 % probability of an NBA career (≥ 2,000 min). On the model's scale: context +3.53 · player +1.76. With average opponent and team, the same profile would give 4.1 %; on the environment alone, 20 %.
- factMeasured environment: Michigan State Spartans, strength +10.5 (+1.5 sd) · average opponent +5.5 (+2.3 sd) — environment #17 of 39 ranked
- factHis individual signal adding the most: Assists per 40 11.6 (+5.6 sd · contribution +1.29). On his individual signals alone he would be #8 of 39.
interpretationThe position holds on what is measured: the rank does not change zone when the environment is removed or the comparables are consulted. SportiveWorld does not yet measure age, physique or projection; those dimensions could explain part of the gap, but the consensus sources do not publish the reason for their rank here.
Where the rank comes from: how much his individual signals contribute and how much his environment (model scale). Below, the probability with an average opponent and team, and the probability on the environment alone.
Potential
Categorical reading of the ceiling the accredited evidence supports. Not a score: it starts from the NCAA model (if any) or from the market prior and only moves one level with our own evidence, declared piece by piece.
factStarts from the NCAA model: 59% probability of an NBA career (#10 of 39 measured). → High
- ◎The market (#56) sees him two bands below the model: down one level.
- ◎On his individual signals alone he would be #8 of 39: consistent with his model #10.
Evidence moves the reading one level at most, in the direction the sum of the evidence pushes. · Confidence: NCAA season with ≥ 15 games with a box score and ≥ 60% of the team's games.
Production
2025-26 · Michigan State Spartans · 15.2p · 2.4r · 9.4a · 32.4 min · 35 of 35 games with a box score · TS 58.5 %
By opponent level ▾
Per 40 minutes, over the games with a box score. Small samples within one season: read as a hint, not a verdict.
| pj | W-L | min | pts/40 | reb/40 | ast/40 | tov/40 | TS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 35 | — | 32.4 | 18.8 | 3.0 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 58.5 % |
| Opponents +8 or better | 12 | 7-5 | 35.6 | 16.9 | 2.8 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 51.3 % |
| Other opponents | 23 | 20-3 | 30.8 | 19.9 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 63.0 % |
| Postseason | 4 | 2-2 | 35.3 | 15.0 | 2.6 | 13.3 | 4.8 | 47.8 % |
| Away / neutral | 14 | 9-5 | 33.0 | 18.1 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 60.2 % |
Strengths
Signals that add the most
- ▲Trajectory: +9.6 pts/40 vs 2023-24
What travels: holds up against strong opponents
- ▲Assists per 40: 10.6 against +8 opponents (12 games) versus 11.6 over the season — it holds
An individual signal is transferable if it holds against opponents rated +8 or better (≥ 90% of its season value). What evaporates as the level rises is stated.
Risks and what would change our mind
Signals that subtract
Would make us move him down
- ▼The shot not holding up: 32.1 % from three with 30 % of his attempts from outside
- ▼Turnovers staying high: 3.0 per 40 min
- ▼More sources consolidating the consensus #56
Would make us move him up
- ▲More box-score defence: steals 1.6 and blocks 0.0 per 40 min subtract today
- ▲Fewer turnovers: today 3.0 per 40 min (+1.1 sd)
- ▲A second source placing him nearby: today the consensus is a single mock
What to watch until the Draft
- →The 2026-27 season: every new box score is measured and can move the rank
- →The mocks: captured daily; today the consensus is 1 source(s)
- →His minutes (32.4 per game): a drop would show in the box score before any news
Context
Facts derived from the box score (Basketball-Reference formulas over the games he played) and the standings. No film or tracking data.
Context
Facts derived from the box score (Basketball-Reference formulas over the games he played) and the standings. No film or tracking data.
Role on his team
- ·Started 35 of 35 games (100%) · 32.4 min (81% of the available minutes)
- ·Usage 24.4% of his team's possessions while on the floor · 24% of its points
- ·Creation: assists 53.0% of his teammates' baskets while on the floor · 3.90 assists per turnover · 15.7% of his possessions end in a turnover
- ·Team record with him on the floor: 27-8 · estimated pace 67.2 possessions per 40 min
His team and schedule
- ·Michigan State Spartans · Big Ten Conference · 25-6 in the standings · 15-5 in conference
- ·Latest poll: Coaches Poll, week 21, #11 (27-8)
- ·Postseason with a box score: 4 games, 3 in the NCAA Tournament (up to Sweet 16)
- ·Team strength +10.5 (+1.5 sd in the cohort) · average opponent +5.5 (+2.3 sd): the model's two context signals
Development
Development
Versus 2023-24: +9.6 pts/40 · +2.5 % TS · +2.8 ast/40 · −2.1 reb/40 · +17.1 min · SW score +57 pp · 2024-25 skipped: 5 games with a box score
Combine
NBA Draft Combine 2026 · identity: unique name within the 2024-2026 window and undrafted · rank within HIS cohort (those who did the test that year)
Combine
NBA Draft Combine 2026 · identity: unique name within the 2024-2026 window and undrafted · rank within HIS cohort (those who did the test that year)
What stands out most
percentile 88 among the PGs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 9 of 67)
interpretationLateral agility above his position: quick changes of direction, useful to defend outside
A snapshot of that day (2026): weight, vertical and times change with physical work
percentile 85 among the PGs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 11 of 66)
interpretationVertical above his position: measured explosiveness, not eyeballed
A snapshot of that day (2026): weight, vertical and times change with physical work
What falls shortest
percentile 21 among the PGs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 59 of 74)
interpretationShort length for his position: shot defence and finishing depend more on technique and vertical
Does not change with age: still true today (measured at the 2026 Combine)
percentile 25 among the PGs measured in 2022-2026 (rank 56 of 74)
interpretationSmall hands for his position: for the same technique, less margin in grip and one-handed control
Does not change with age: still true today (measured at the 2026 Combine)
All measurements · 11
Market vs SportiveWorld
Outside reference: the rank given by the cited publications. We know the rank; they do not publish the why.
factExternal consensus #56 (Tankathon #52; 1 source(s)). What we know: the rank. What we do NOT know: why they place him there — the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Does our position hold? · The three lenses
- ◎On his individual signals alone he would be #8 of 39: the same zone as SW #10
- ◎On his environment alone (opponent and team) he would be #17 of 39, with 20 %
- ◎No Scout historical comparables for this season: that lens does not apply
Three independent lenses against our own place: his individual signals alone, his environment alone and the historical comparables. A lens disagrees when it lands 8 places away or more. SportiveWorld can be wrong: this is where it shows.
Conviction
- ✓Sample: 35 of 35 games with a box score (100%)
- ✗Standardised against the census population (no own profile)
- ✗The consensus is a SINGLE source (1): it is not a market
- ✓His individual signals alone leave him in the same zone (#8 versus SW #10)
- ✗No historical comparables for this season
- ✓Trajectory in favour: +57 pp of probability versus 2023-24
Why this gap exists ▾
On our side the gap decomposes exactly: which dimensions push the rank up and which hold it back. On the consensus side we only see the rank: its sources publish rankings, not reasons, so why they place him there is UNKNOWN. All we can say is what our model does NOT measure.
factSportiveWorld #10 · consensus #56: 46 places higher. Pushing up: Opponent quality · Creation · Team strength · Minutes · Production. Holding back: Efficiency · Box-score defence. Consensus sources: 1.
unknownWe know the consensus rank (#56: Tankathon #52). We do not know why they place him there: the sources publish rankings, not reasons.
Pushes the rank up
Holds the rank back
What our model does NOT measure (it could explain part of the gap; the consensus does not publish its reasons)
- ◇Age and class (Sophomore): the model does not adjust for them; the same production from a younger player projects higher
- ◇Physique and athleticism: measured at the 2026 Combine (below), but outside the model
- ◇Projection, film and future role: not in the box score
No appreciable weight · Outside shooting −0.02
Rank history ▾
7 captures, from 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-20
Movement in the mocks
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
Data and evidence
Everything behind the reading, on demand: season signal by signal, trajectory, games with a box score, comparables, consensus and the provenance of every figure.
All the model's signals
Calibrated probability of an NBA career of ≥ 2,000 minutes, given this season = 59.4 % · P(playing in the NBA) = 78.7 %
35 of 35 games with a box score · 21 conference · Average opponent +5.5 (+2.3 sd vs the cohort) · team +10.5 (+1.5 sd) · standardization computed here against that season's Scout census population (the census has no profile for him: sample below its 15-game/15-minute bar, or a name its outcome resolution deems ambiguous)
Who he is
The games with a box score in the measured season
| 2025-26 | Opponent | opp. rating | min | pts | reb | ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | @ UConn Huskies L 63-67 · NCAA Tournament | +11.4 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 7 | box score |
| 2026-03-21 | Louisville Cardinals W 77-69 · NCAA Tournament | +11.7 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 16 | box score |
| 2026-03-19 | North Dakota State Bison W 92-67 · NCAA Tournament | +10.1 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 11 | box score |
| 2026-03-14 | UCLA Bruins L 84-88 · Conference Tournament | +6.0 | 36 | 21 | 1 | 13 | box score |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Michigan Wolverines L 80-90 | +17.8 | 37 | 22 | 2 | 9 | box score |
| 2026-03-06 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights W 91-87 | −4.8 | 28 | 21 | 1 | 8 | box score |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Indiana Hoosiers W 77-64 | +6.0 | 37 | 21 | 4 | 9 | box score |
| 2026-02-27 | @ Purdue Boilermakers W 76-74 | +11.1 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 6 | box score |
| 2026-02-22 | Ohio State Buckeyes W 66-60 | +6.7 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 8 | box score |
| 2026-02-18 | UCLA Bruins W 82-59 | +6.0 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 10 | box score |
| 2026-02-14 | @ Wisconsin Badgers L 71-92 | +6.9 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 12 | box score |
| 2026-02-08 | Illinois Fighting Illini W 85-82 | +14.5 | 43 | 26 | 3 | 15 | box score |
| 2026-02-05 | @ Minnesota Golden Gophers L 73-76 | +0.9 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 11 | box score |
| 2026-01-31 | Michigan Wolverines L 71-83 | +17.8 | 35 | 31 | 5 | 7 | box score |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights W 88-79 | −4.8 | 36 | 29 | 4 | 9 | box score |
| 2026-01-24 | Maryland Terrapins W 91-48 | −6.9 | 25 | 17 | 2 | 17 | box score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Oregon Ducks W 68-52 | −3.1 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 5 | box score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Washington Huskies W 80-63 | +3.5 | 29 | 19 | 1 | 5 | box score |
| 2026-01-14 | Indiana Hoosiers W 81-60 | +6.0 | 33 | 23 | 4 | 10 | box score |
| 2026-01-08 | Northwestern Wildcats W 76-66 | +1.2 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 5 | box score |
| 2026-01-06 | USC Trojans W 80-51 | +0.7 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 7 | box score |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Nebraska Cornhuskers L 56-58 | +10.8 | 35 | 14 | 0 | 7 | box score |
| 2025-12-30 | Cornell Big Red W 114-97 | +5.1 | 28 | 21 | 2 | 11 | box score |
| 2025-12-20 | Oakland Golden Grizzlies W 79-70 | +0.9 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 5 | box score |
| 2025-12-16 | Toledo Rockets W 92-69 | +4.5 | 27 | 15 | 3 | 8 | box score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Penn State Nittany Lions W 76-72 | −5.7 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 9 | box score |
| 2025-12-06 | Duke Blue Devils L 60-66 | +18.0 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 13 | box score |
| 2025-12-03 | Iowa Hawkeyes W 71-52 | +8.3 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 6 | box score |
| 2025-11-27 | @ North Carolina Tar Heels W 74-58 | +8.1 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 7 | box score |
| 2025-11-25 | @ East Carolina Pirates W 89-56 | −5.9 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 10 | box score |
| 2025-11-21 | Detroit Mercy Titans W 84-56 | −0.1 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 11 | box score |
| 2025-11-18 | @ Kentucky Wildcats W 83-66 | +6.2 | 31 | 8 | 6 | 13 | box score |
| 2025-11-13 | San José State Spartans W 79-60 | −6.5 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 9 | box score |
| 2025-11-09 | Arkansas Razorbacks W 69-66 | +9.2 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 9 | box score |
| 2025-11-04 | Colgate Raiders W 80-69 | +1.8 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 10 | box score |
Evidence and provenance
Every figure in this file comes from one of these sources, with its scope and its sample. What is not here has not been measured.
| Owner | Scope | Sample | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outside consensus | draft_board_mock · lib/bigboard.ts | 1 mocks | Tankathon #52 |
| Identity | draft_board_prospect.espn_athlete_id · scripts/cross_bigboard_stats.mjs | NCAA Division I | 4711255 |
| Season | ncaa_player_box + ncaa_game · lib/scout/ejes.mjs | NCAA 2025-26 · Michigan State Spartans | 35 of 35 games with a box score |
| Opponent quality | lib/draft/sql_rival.mjs (ncaa_game, ≥10 pj) | NCAA 2025-26 | 35 / 35 |
| z | ncaa_season_profile (población) · lib/draft/modelo.ts | NCAA 2025-26 | standardization computed here against that season's Scout census population (the census has no profile for him: sample below its 15-game/15-minute bar, or a name its outcome resolution deems ambiguous) |
| SW rank | lib/draft/modelo.ts · lib/draft/calibracion.json | 2005-2021 | n=26,550 · AUC 0.897 |
| The player within his team | ncaa_player_box (rolDe · fórmulas B-R) | NCAA 2025-26 | 35 pj |
| The team | ncaa_standings · ncaa_ranking · ncaa_game | NCAA 2025-26 | Big Ten Conference |
| Combine | player_combine · lib/basketball/fisico.ts | NBA Draft Combine 2026 | nombre_unico_en_ventana_y_no_drafteado · 2024-2026 |
| Physical | ncaa_player (ESPN, 2026) | NCAA 2025-26 | 188 cm · 86 kg |
| Rank history | draft_sw_board_snapshot · draft_board_mock_snapshot (mig 0329) | 2027 | 7 |
Declared limits
- · No adjustment for age or class (the historical census lacks them): bias in favour of the productive veteran.
- · Physical measurements and the combine are not in the model: they are shown as context.
- · Calibrated on the NCAA only: ACB, EuroLeague and FIBA are not scored.
- · The mocks' history starts on 2026-09-13: before that date there is none (the ingester overwrote them daily).