FORECAST · WNBA
What Forecast expects
Each game's probability, explained in basketball terms: why, what could flip it, what we don't know and how the model has performed.
Preview saved before the gameAs of 24 Sept49 games with a forecast
Previews saved before tip-off and compared with the result.
24 SeptDAL @ SEAFavourite · DAL 79%SEA 91 – DAL 103Correct24 SeptATL @ NYFavourite · ATL 51%NY 65 – ATL 83Correct23 SeptGS @ PORFavourite · GS 82%POR 90 – GS 82Missed23 SeptLA @ LVFavourite · LV 79%LV 89 – LA 79Correct21 SeptSEA @ LVFavourite · LV 89%LV 98 – SEA 77Correct20 SeptPOR @ LAFavourite · LA 55%LA 105 – POR 84Correct20 SeptWSH @ INDFavourite · IND 59%IND 77 – WSH 93Missed20 SeptNY @ TORFavourite · NY 81%TOR 69 – NY 106Correct20 SeptSEA @ GSFavourite · GS 92%GS 70 – SEA 57Correct19 SeptCHI @ ATLFavourite · ATL 79%ATL 106 – CHI 81Correct19 SeptPHX @ DALFavourite · DAL 71%DAL 87 – PHX 82Correct19 SeptPOR @ GSFavourite · GS 84%GS 82 – POR 66Correct18 SeptNY @ MINFavourite · MIN 70%MIN 81 – NY 93Missed18 SeptIND @ TORFavourite · IND 82%TOR 85 – IND 103Correct18 SeptWSH @ CHIFavourite · WSH 68%CHI 80 – WSH 110Correct18 SeptLA @ DALFavourite · DAL 71%DAL 97 – LA 77Correct17 SeptCON @ ATLFavourite · ATL 84%ATL 103 – CON 59Correct
HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD
Measured over 49 games: it picked the right side 76% of the time and its average error (Brier) was 0.172.
On those same games the market consensus had less error (0.169 versus 0.172): the model does not beat it, and we say so.
This is reading the data, not a bet: we work with no bookmakers and show no odds. And a game turns on an injury, a hot night or a bad call.