Forecast NBA 2026-27Houston Rockets
● Updated · 7 Nov
Houston rises from 52 to 60 wins.
Amen Thompson
Alperen Sengun is the player who weighs most in this projection: +3.9 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 32.7 | 78.0 | 2,534 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 30.2 | 76.8 | 2,304 |
| Kevin Durant | 30.3 | 73.0 | 2,194 |
| Alperen Sengun | 30.3 | 66.6 | 2,005 |
| Tari Eason | 22.1 | 70.4 | 1,544 |
| Reed Sheppard | 25.3 | 61.3 | 1,538 |
| Fred VanVleet | 25.3 | 48.5 | 1,216 |
| Marcus Smart | 21.9 | 53.5 | 1,165 |
| Clint Capela | 13.3 | 62.1 | 820 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 12.6 | 61.8 | 773 |
| Steven Adams | 17.5 | 40.5 | 703 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 14.1 | 40.8 | 572 |
| Isaiah Crawford | 7.8 | 42.3 | 329 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 6.7 | 48.6 | 324 |
| Julian Phillips | 10.3 | 11.0 | 112 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,133
- Not assigned to players
- 1,547
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 100.0 % | 78.0 | History and team context |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 100.0 % | 76.8 | History and team context |
| Kevin Durant | 100.0 % | 73.0 | History and team context |
| Alperen Sengun | 100.0 % | 66.6 | History and team context |
| Tari Eason | 100.0 % | 70.4 | History and team context |
| Reed Sheppard | 100.0 % | 61.3 | History and team context |
| Fred VanVleet | 100.0 % | 48.5 | History before the return |
| Marcus Smart | 100.0 % | 53.5 | History and team context |
| Clint Capela | 100.0 % | 62.1 | History and team context |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 100.0 % | 61.8 | History and team context |
| Steven Adams | 100.0 % | 40.5 | History and team context |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 100.0 % | 40.8 | History and team context |
| Isaiah Crawford | 100.0 % | 42.3 | History and team context |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 100.0 % | 48.6 | History and team context |
| Julian Phillips | 66.5 % | 16.5 | History and team context |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 52.0 to 60.2 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug52.0 wins
- 21 Aug+0.14 · trigger not stated52.1 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 24 Aug-3.81 · roster change48.3 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change48.3 wins
- 26 Aug-0.01 · roster change48.3 wins
- 27 Aug-0.17 · roster change48.2 wins
- 28 Aug-0.13 · roster change48.0 wins
- 29 Aug-0.13 · roster change47.9 wins
- 30 Aug+0.12 · roster change48.0 wins
- 31 Aug+0.56 · roster change48.6 wins
- 1 Sept+3.95 · roster change52.5 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.5 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change52.5 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 10 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change52.5 wins
- 14 Sept+0.08 · roster change52.6 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change52.6 wins
- 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.6 wins
- 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.6 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change52.6 wins
- 19 Sept0.00 · roster change52.6 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change52.6 wins
- 24 Sept-0.01 · trigger not stated52.6 wins
- 25 Sept+0.04 · roster change52.6 wins
- 26 Sept+0.02 · roster change52.7 wins
- 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change52.6 wins
- 28 Sept+0.06 · roster change52.7 wins
- 29 Sept-0.33 · roster change52.4 wins
- 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.4 wins
- 1 Oct+0.10 · roster change52.5 wins
- 2 Oct+0.17 · roster change52.6 wins
- 3 Oct-0.13 · roster change52.5 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 5 Oct-0.10 · roster change52.4 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change52.4 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change52.4 wins
- 8 Oct0.00 · roster change52.4 wins
- 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change52.4 wins
- 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change52.5 wins
- 12 Oct0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated52.5 wins
- 14 Oct+0.08 · roster change52.5 wins
- 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change52.5 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 17 Oct+0.04 · roster change52.5 wins
- 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change52.5 wins
- 19 Oct-0.37 · roster change52.1 wins
- 20 Oct-0.04 · roster change52.1 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 22 Oct0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 23 Oct+1.81 · roster change53.9 wins
- 24 Oct+0.01 · roster change53.9 wins
- 25 Oct+1.68 · roster change55.6 wins
- 26 Oct+1.28 · roster change56.8 wins
- 27 Oct-0.15 · roster change56.7 wins
- 28 Oct+0.44 · roster change57.1 wins
- 29 Oct+0.11 · roster change57.2 wins
- 30 Oct+2.95 · roster change60.2 wins
- 31 Oct-0.69 · roster change59.5 wins
- 1 Nov-1.25 · roster change58.3 wins
- 2 Nov+1.90 · roster change60.1 wins
- 3 Nov+0.16 · roster change60.3 wins
- 4 Nov+0.96 · roster change61.3 wins
- 5 Nov-0.56 · roster change60.7 wins
- 6 Nov-1.26 · roster change59.5 wins
- 7 Nov+0.74 · roster change60.2 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
Houston would win about 60 games; the model gives it a margin of 50 to 71 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 50–71. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 50 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 71 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will Houston Rockets win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
Houston Rockets: 60.2 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season